Sunday, September 30, 2018

Players of the Month

The offensive player of the month for September was an easy choice. Christian Yelich led the majors with a .500 OBP and a .807 slugging percentage. He tied Tevor Story and Luke Voit with 10 home runs in the month. Christian Yelich is the Baseball Musings Offesive Player of the Month for September 2018.

On the pitching side, three pitchers allowed four earned runs in 33 innings, Luis Castillo, Justin Verlander, and Reynaldo Lopez. Verlander, however, accomplished it with outstanding three-true outcomes. He struck out 13.6 batters per 9 IP, walked 1.4 per nine, and allowed 0.27 HR per 9 IP. Blake Snell and Carlos Carrasco tied for the league lead in strikeouts with 53. Snell went 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA, allowing just 21 hits in 35 2/3 innings.

An honorable mention should go to Kyle Freeland of the Rockies, who allowed 2.61 ERA as he went 5-0 in the month. He allowed just two home runs in 38 innings.

Verlander’s excellent combination of ERA and three-true outcomes carry the day. Justin Verlander is the Baseball Musings pitcher of the month for September 2018.



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Best Batter, End of Scheduled Season

The 2018 scheduled season ended Sunday, and although two more regular season games are played Monday, this is a good time to see where the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings stand. Christian Yelich winds up first, with a 29 point lead over Anthony Rendon. Rendon, Justin Turner, Alex Bregman, and Mike Trout are separated by just seven points.

Three of those five play on, and they get credit for their post-season batting while the players who don’t continue fade a bit until 2019 starts.



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Monday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date with games through Sunday.



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Cubs Win

The Cubs beat the Cardinals 10-5 to stay even with the Brewers. The will play game 163 in Chicago Monday at 1 PM EDT, 12 PM Central. Both that game and the NL West game at 4 PM EDT will be on ESPN.



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Say, It Ain’t Scioscia

Mike Scioscia decided to step down as manager of the Angels:

Mike Scioscia announced Sunday that he will not return next season as the Los Angeles Angels’ manager.

Scioscia made the announcement after the Angels defeated the Oakland Athletics 5-4 on Taylor Ward‘s game-ending home run.

His 1650-1428 record is very impressive, and I suspect he will go into the Hall of Fame someday for hit managerial skill. It is a pity he is going, as he stressed putting the ball in play, something baseball needs right now. It worked to great effect against the 2002 Yankees, a high strikeout, poor defensive team. As the batted balls found holes, the Angels were able to advance and eventually win their only World Series title.



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Brewers Win

The Brewers beat the Tigers 11-0, as every remaining contender for a division title scores in double digits. It’s the third shutout among the final four, only the Cubs allowing runs. Milwaukee awaits the result of the Cardinals and Cubs, with Chicago leading 10-5 in the bottom of the seventh.

Christian Yelich doesn’t look like he’ll win the triple crown, as he goes 0 for 2 with no RBI. Nolan Arenado passed Yelich and Carpenter for the home run lead in the NL.

If the Cubs hold on, the Brewers travel a bit south to Wrigley to play at 1 PM EDT, 12 PM CDT on Monday. The winner gets three days off, while the loser hosts the wild card game on Tuesday night.



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Riding the Cycle

Charlie Blackmon added a double in the bottom of the eighth to hit for the cycle, and the Rockies beat the Nationals 12-0. It is the 18th cycle at Coors Field, the most at any park in the division era by 10.

The Rockies wind up tied with the Dodgers who beat the Giants 15-0. The two teams end the season tied for the NL West lead. They will play in Los Angeles Monday afternoon at 4 PM EDT, 1 PM PDT. The winner gets three days off and will host the 2-3 NLDS round, while the loser plays the wild card game Tuesday in either Milwaukee or Chicago.



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Braun Bangs

Ryan Braun doubles with the bases loaded and no one out in the bottom of the seventh inning, and the Brewers score two more runs. They lead the Tigers 6-0, and it’s looking more and more like there will be two playoff games tomorrow.



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Arenado Takes the Lead

Nolan Arenado hit his 37th home run of the season and his second of the game in the bottom of the seventh to give the Rockies a 9-0 lead over the Nationals. Arenado takes over the league lead in home runs.



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Cardinals Score

Yairo Munoz singles in two runs in the top of the sixth inning, and the Cubs lead is down to 8-4.



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Brewers Extend

Manny Pina hits a sacrifice fly with the bases loaded in the bottom of the sixth, and the Brewers lead the Tigers 4-0.



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Cubs Extend

Kris Bryant doubles in two runs in the bottom of the fifth inning, and the Cubs lead the Cardinals 6-2.

Update: Wilson Contreras hits a two-run homer to push the lead to 8-2.



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Three-Quarters of a Cycle

Charlie Blackmon is credited with an infield single in the bottom of the fifth inning, and now just needs the double for the cycle. The Rockies still lead the Nationals 4-0.

Update: A DJ LeMahieu single and a David Dahl home run gives the Rockies a 7-0 lead in fifth. The Dodgers are up 12-0 on the Giants, so it looks like there will be a game tomorrow to decide the NL West championship.

Update: It’s up to 14-0 in San Francisco.



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Cubs on the Board

Daniel Murphy doubles, and Ben Zobrist follows with a triple, and the Cubs score their first run of the game. The Cardinals lead 2-1 with two out in the bottom of the third inning. The next pitch gets away, and Zobrist scores to tie the game.

Meanwhile, Jesus Aguilar homers to extend the Brewers lead to 3-0 over the Tigers in the bottom of the fourth inning.

Update: Anthony Rizzo doubles in Javier Baez after Baez walks, and the Cubs take a 3-2 lead on the Cardinals. All four teams that have to win are winning now.



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Half a Cycle

Charlie Blackmon hits a two-run homer in his second plate apperance, and the Rockies lead the Nationals 4-0 in the bottom of the third inning. He tripled leading off the Rockies half of the first inning. Both the Rockies and Dodgers have big leads early. The Dodgers just scored their ninth run.



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Machado RBI

Manny Machado drops a single into shallow center in the top of the third to score Justin Turner from third, and the Dodgers extend their lead over the Giants to 3-0. Kike Hernandez follows with an RBI single to make it 4-0, and Andrew Suarez comes out of the game for San Francisco.

Update: Hunter Strickland comes in and gives up a double to Matt Kemp, who drives in two more runs. The Dodgers are off to an early 6-0 lead.

Update: Kemp scores from third on a wild pitch. It’s 7-0 Dodgers



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Infield Aguilar

Two walks and an infield single by Jesus Aguilar puts the Brewers on the board in the bottom of the first. Mike Moustakas follows with an RBI single, and the Brewers are up on the Tigers 2-0, as the Cubs trail the Cardinals 2-0.

Lots of scoring in the first inning of the big games.



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Cardinals Score First

Matt Carpenter, and Paul DeJong, and Patrick Wisdom collect hits in the top of the first inning as the Cardinals end the frame with a 2-0 lead on the Cubs. The Brewers are threatening against the Tigers in the bottom of the first in their game.



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Blackmon and Arenado

Charlie Blackmon leads off the bottom of the first with a triple against the Nationals. The next two batter strand him, but Nolan Arenado hits a home run to give Colorado a 2-0 lead. Both the Dodgers and Rockies now have a two-run lead. Both teams will tie if they win or both lose.



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Dodgers Score First

A walk to Chris Taylor and a double by Justin Turner puts the Dodgers up 1-0 on the Giants. David Freese singled while I typed that, and the Dodgers lead 2-0 with no one out in the first.



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RBI Crown

Christian Yelich trails Javier Baez by two in the race for the NL RBI title. If Yelich can at least tie Baez, Yelich might win the triple crown in the NL. If you are rooting for a triple crown, one probably wants a play-off game on Monday. My RBI simulation gives Yelich a 0.127 probability of catching Baez in four PA, but a .204 probability of catching him in eight PA.

Yelich is pretty much set to win the batting title, but he does have to worry about Matt Carpenter homering.



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Games of the Day

All games today start at approximately 3 PM EDT. For some reason, the Cubs game is not scheduled to start until 3:20 PM.

The Dodgers send Rich Hill against the Giants and rookie pitcher Andrew Suarez. It looks like the Dodgers are trying to save Walker Buehler for the play-off or wild card game if needed. Hill is 4-0 in September despite a 5.09 ERA. Suarez owns a 3.18 ERA at home, 5.26 on the road, thanks to better walk and home run rates in San Francisco.

Detroit sends rookie Spencer Turnbull against the Brewers and Gio Gonzalez. Turnbull has 11 MLB innings under his belt, allowing seven runs despite just two walks and no home runs allowed. Opponents are 4 for 11 with runners in scoring position. Gonzalez has a 2.66 ERA in four starts since joining Milwaukee.

Washington decided to start rookie Eric Fedde instead of Max Scherzer against the Rockies, as this game does not mean life or death for the Rockies in terms of making the playoffs. Fedde pitched 61 2/3 innings in the majors over the last two seasons, allowing 11 homers and 29 walks in 61 2/3 innings. The Rockies start Tyler Anderson, who is 0-6 with a 6.91 ERA since the All-Star break.

Finally, the Cardinals are left to play spoilers as rookie Jack Flaherty faces the Cubs and Mike Montgomery. Flaherty had a fine rookie season, striking out 179 in 148 1/3 innings, good for a 3.16 ERA. Montgomery made two starts and two relief appearances against St. Louis this season, allowing no home runs in 15 innings.

Enjoy!



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NL Playoff Picture

This is just a quick recap of what can happen today in the National League and who it affects the seedings in the playoffs.

  • The Braves, Dodgers, and Rockies are tied at 90-71. The Braves will play one of the two western teams in the NLDS. Both western teams hold the tie-breaker against the Braves. If either of the two western teams win today, the Braves lose home-field advantage. If both western teams lose and the Braves win, then the Braves get home-field advantage.
  • If the one of the two divisions up for grabs ends in a tie, then a playoff game will be held Monday at 4 PM EDT. If both divisions are tied, the first game with be at 1 PM EDT, the second at 4 PM.
  • The winner of the NL Central will get home field advantage throughout the NL playoffs. The loser hosts the wild card game.

It should be fun. All games start at 3 PM EDT Sunday.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brett Anderson.
0.310 — Jean Segura batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.310 — Corey Dickerson batting against Sal Romano.
0.305 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Brett Anderson.
0.304 — David Fletcher batting against Brett Anderson.
0.304 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.300 — Mike Trout batting against Brett Anderson.
0.300 — Joey Wendle batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.300 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ranger Suarez.
0.298 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Erick Fedde.
0.296 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Erick Fedde.
0.295 — Robinson Cano batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.295 — Nolan Arenado batting against Erick Fedde.
0.294 — Gerardo Parra batting against Erick Fedde.
0.294 — Jose Altuve batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.293 — Matt M Duffy batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.293 — Justin Turner batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.293 — Jose Martinez batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.292 — Jose M Fernandez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.291 — Eddie Rosario batting against Dylan Covey.
0.290 — Michael Brantley batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.290 — Starling Marte batting against Sal Romano.
0.290 — David Dahl batting against Erick Fedde.
0.289 — Mallex Smith batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.288 — Nick Markakis batting against Ranger Suarez.

It looks like the Angels should go out on a high note.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.310, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.294, 0.734 — Jose Altuve batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.326, 0.730 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brett Anderson.
0.304, 0.725 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.310, 0.725 — Corey Dickerson batting against Sal Romano.
0.287, 0.724 — Miguel Andujar batting against Rick Porcello.
0.298, 0.721 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Erick Fedde.
0.284, 0.720 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jonathan Loaisiga.
0.290, 0.719 — Michael Brantley batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.296, 0.717 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Erick Fedde.
0.293, 0.715 — Jose Martinez batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.287, 0.715 — Scooter Gennett batting against Clay Holmes.
0.300, 0.713 — Joey Wendle batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.291, 0.713 — Eddie Rosario batting against Dylan Covey.
0.295, 0.712 — Nolan Arenado batting against Erick Fedde.
0.281, 0.712 — Mookie Betts batting against Jonathan Loaisiga.
0.294, 0.712 — Gerardo Parra batting against Erick Fedde.
0.300, 0.712 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ranger Suarez.
0.281, 0.710 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.295, 0.710 — Robinson Cano batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.293, 0.709 — Justin Turner batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.287, 0.709 — Anthony Rendon batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.283, 0.707 — Christian Yelich batting against Spencer Turnbull.
0.290, 0.703 — David Dahl batting against Erick Fedde.
0.287, 0.703 — Dee Gordon batting against Yovani Gallardo.

Segura did play last night, so his benching for lack of hustle was temporary. He is the consensus first pick, with Simmons second.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!



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Best Batter Today

With two home runs Saturday night, Christian Yelich now holds a huge lead in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Yelich holds a 28 point lead over Anthony Rendon, who tripled in five trips to the plate against Colorado. Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, and Justin Turner are a very close 3-4-5.



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Sunday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Saturday, September 29, 2018

Two Ties

The Nationals beat the Rockies 12-2, putting the Rockies and Dodgers in a tie for the NL West lead. With the Cubs and Brewers also tied, we have a 75% of at least one division being decided on Monday. All the action starts at 3 PM EDT on Sunday.



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Yelling for Yelich

I think Christian Yelich just cemented his MVP credentials as he hits his second home run of the game, breaking a tie to put the Brewers up 6-5 on the Tigers. He now has 36 home runs, tying him for the league lead and giving him two parts of the triple crown. He’s also just two RBI behind Javier Baez in the RBI race. Suddenly, we might have the first triple crown winner in the NL since 1937 when Joe Medwick won it.



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The Wright Ending

It sounds like David Wright had a nice send-off at Citi Field:

The team captain went 0-for-1 with a walk against the Marlins and was removed after two plate appearances as planned. On defense, he handled a one-hopper to third base with no problem.

Wright, who fouled out to first base his final time up, took his position before the top of the fifth inning. Mets manager Mickey Callaway then came out of the dugout to make a lineup change, and Wright began his slow walk off the field.

As he exited, Wright shook hands with third-base umpire Mike Winters, saluted and thumped his chest toward fans and hugged each of his teammates, who poured out of the dugout to salute the captain.

Fans stood and cheered Wright for about 3 minutes, 15 seconds.

Wright certainly made a great effort to try to return from his injuries. I suspect he’ll continue behind the scenes in the Mets organization for a while.



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NL Post-Season Picture

With the Dodgers win over the Giants, the field for the NL post-season is complete. The Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, and Rockies will vie for the NL pennant, but at the moment we have no idea where anyone will play. It is still possible to have ties for the NL Central and NL West divisions, which would require a playoff on Monday. The Brewers and Rockies games tonight may or may not make the picture clearer.



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LA Story

Watching the final inning of the Dodgers at the Giants, it became clear how many fans made the trek to northern California to cheer on Los Angeles. The Dodgers game into the top of the ninth with a 6-5 lead. After the first two batter were retired, the next seven batters reached base, and four of them scored. As each hit or walk happened, the park erupted in such loud cheering I had to check that the game was actually taking place in San Francisco. With two out in the bottom of the ninth, fans are cheering, “Let’s go Dodgers.”

The Giants are trying to mount a comeback, and have scored one run so far.

Update: The Dodgers win 10-6, and clinch the final playoff spot in the National League. Congratulations to the Dodgers on their sixth consecutive post-season appearance.



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Bronx Bomber

On the penultimate day of the AL season, the Yankees broke a Major League team record that stood for 20 years:

Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton connected as the New York Yankees broke the major league record for home runs in a season and reached 100 wins with an 8-5 victory over the Boston Red Sox on Saturday.

Torres’ two-run drive in the fourth was the Yankees’ 265th of the year and moved them past the 1997 Seattle Mariners for the mark.

Stanton pushed the record to 266 in the seventh with his 38th homer, a solo homer to left field. A fan sitting in the seats above the Green Monster threw the souvenir back, and the ball bounced into Stanton as he rounded second base.

The Yankees started off the expansion era setting a record of 240 home runs in a season, playing a 162 game schedule for the first time. It would stand until 1996, when three teams passed that mark. Between 1996 and 2005 inclusive, 11 teams would pass the 240 home run barrier. The Yankees are the sixth team to accomplish that level since then, and this is the third year in a row a team passed 240 home runs. Players appear to be catching up to the home run hitting power of the steroid era without the drugs.



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Games of the Day

The Cardinals send Miles Mikolas against Cole Hamels as both teams need a win. The Cardinals try to keep a wild card hope alive while the Cubs try to take another step toward a division championship. Both pitchers were nice additions to the clubs, Mikolas going 17-4 after a three year absence from the majors leagues, Hamels posting a 2.47 ERA in eleven starts with the Cubs.

Three hours later, the Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw against the Giants and Dereck Rodriguez and the Giants. A win by the Dodgers eliminates the Cardinals regardless of the earlier outcome. Los Angeles can still catch Colorado for the NL West title. Kershaw is not going great guns into the playoffs. In five September starts he struck out 27, walked nine, and allowed six home runs in 32 innings. That’s below average for Kershaw, but it’s still good enough for a 3.09 ERA and a 3-0 record in the month. Rodriguez tries to cap off a fine rookie season in which he’s posted a 2.50 ERA, with just seven home runs allowed in 115 1/3 innings.

Detroit sends Daniel Norris against the Brewers and Wade Miley. Milwaukee could be facing division title elimination or a chance for a tie. Norris comes into the game 0-5 with a 5.22 ERA. He allowed seven home runs in 39 2/3 innings. Miley allowed just three home runs in 77 2/3 innings this season.

Finally, the Nationals take on the Rockies with Stephen Strasburg facing Jon Gray. Strasburg pitched well on the road this season, 7-2 with a 2.34 ERA. Gray tries to reduce the Rockies magic number to at most one, but could be pitching for Colorado’s first division title. He is 7-3 at home this season

Enjoy!



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.309 — David Peralta batting against Jacob Nix.
0.309 — Jose Altuve batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.301 — Daniel Murphy batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.294 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.294 — Michael Brantley batting against Jakob Junis.
0.294 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.293 — Anthony Rendon batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.293 — Miguel Andujar batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.289 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Jacob Nix.
0.288 — Christian Yelich batting against Daniel Norris.
0.287 — Jean Segura batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.287 — J.D. Martinez batting against Lance Lynn.
0.287 — Jon Jay batting against Jacob Nix.
0.286 — Javier Baez batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.284 — Jose Altuve batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.284 — Mookie Betts batting against Lance Lynn.
0.283 — Albert Almora batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.281 — Jose Peraza batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.281 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Daniel Norris.
0.279 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Jacob Nix.
0.278 — Jeff McNeil batting against Trevor Richards.
0.278 — Adam C Eaton batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.277 — Corey Dickerson batting against Michael Lorenzen.
0.276 — Nick Castellanos batting against Wade Miley.
0.275 — Adam Jones batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.275 — Jose Martinez batting against Cole Hamels.

Note that Jean Segura was taken out of the Mariners game last night due to lack of hustle.

“We’re going to play hard through the end of the year. I didn’t think Jean gave a really good effort trying to score from second and he came out of the game,” Servais said.

Segura is hitting .301 after a prolonged dip in the second half. Servais didn’t commit to play Segura in the final two games of the regular season.

Segura did not get a hit last night. I suspect some Beat the Streak players who lost a long streak because of that are upset this morning. Segura needs to be careful or he might wind up as a co-pilot.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.309, 0.742 — Jose Altuve batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.301, 0.735 — Daniel Murphy batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.284, 0.729 — Jose Altuve batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.293, 0.726 — Miguel Andujar batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.294, 0.722 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.294, 0.721 — Michael Brantley batting against Jakob Junis.
0.287, 0.720 — J.D. Martinez batting against Lance Lynn.
0.287, 0.719 — Jean Segura batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.294, 0.717 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.309, 0.716 — David Peralta batting against Jacob Nix.
0.288, 0.713 — Christian Yelich batting against Daniel Norris.
0.284, 0.712 — Mookie Betts batting against Lance Lynn.
0.274, 0.712 — Wilson Ramos batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.293, 0.711 — Anthony Rendon batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.275, 0.707 — Jose Martinez batting against Cole Hamels.
0.281, 0.707 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Daniel Norris.
0.286, 0.706 — Javier Baez batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.283, 0.705 — Albert Almora batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.281, 0.704 — Jose Peraza batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.271, 0.704 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.277, 0.703 — Corey Dickerson batting against Michael Lorenzen.
0.276, 0.700 — Nick Castellanos batting against Wade Miley.
0.264, 0.699 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.273, 0.699 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.274, 0.697 — Robinson Cano batting against Adrian Sampson.

It looks like an Altuve and Murphy double down day.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!



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Best Batter Today

There is a shuffling in the order of the top five players in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Mike Trout went 2 for 3 with a home run and a walk Friday night, and he moves up to third place. Christian Yelich (who homered) and Anthony Rendon (who hit his 44th double) remain 1-2, while Justin Turner and Alex Bregman sit 4-5.

The ranking keep updating during the playoffs, so there still can be changes as October passes. Trout and Rendon will likely drop.



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Playoff Picture

Congratulations to the Colorado Rockies! Their 5-2 win over the Nationals clinched at least a wild card slot for the second season in a row. That, of course, ends the chance of a massive tie in the Wild West race, but the NL picture still is in flux. There are still three possible two ways ties. The Cubs and Brewers have about a 25% chance of a tie for the NL Central title, the Rockies and Dodgers have a 25% chance of a tie for the NL West title, and the Dodgers and Cardinals have a 12.5% chances of a tie for the second wild card. So there is a decent chance of a an extra game on Monday.

The Braves and the eventual winner of the NL West could also be tied, but both the Rockies and Dodgers won their season series against the Braves. If that tie happens, that NLDS opens in the west. The NL Central champion will hold the best record in the league.

The AL picture is set as the Yankees beat the Red Sox 11-6 on Friday night to clinch home field in the AL Wild Card game. The A’s lost 8-5 to the Angels just for good measure. Oakland plays at New York Wednesday night, Oct. 3, with the winner traveling up I-95 to Boston to take on the Red Sox Friday. The Indians open against the Astros on Friday as well.



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Saturday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Friday, September 28, 2018

Moore Wants More

Dayton Moore wound up having fun this season as he worked on rebuilding the Royals. He feels they are ready to take the next step:

“We’re not going to talk about rebuilding anymore,” said Moore, who said he expects Yost back next year. “Whatever team we put on the field next year, we’re going to expect that team to win a lot of baseball games. … Major-league players are paid to win baseball games. They’re not paid to play, they’re paid to win.”

This time around, even as reducing payroll remains as much a priority as replenishing the farm system, the idea is to make the winning stand the test of time.

“Most people in baseball will say (small) markets like ours are going to win for four or five years and then they’re going to lose for four or five years,” Moore said. “We’re not going to buy into that logic. We’re going to put us in a position to start winning again, hopefully sooner than later.

“And then once we get in that position, we want to win 10-15 years in a row. Doesn’t mean we’ll make the playoffs every year. Doesn’t mean we’ll ever win another World Series. But we’ve got to be in a position where we’ve got a chance.”

That’s the goal. A number of clubs seem to be set up that way. I hope more teams can pull it off and we see fewer years like Baltimore’s this season.



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International Investigation

Jeff Passan reveals that their is an investigation underway into MLB dealings in the international market for players:

The plundering of Latin America wasn’t Major League Baseball’s original sin. It’s simply the one that has festered the longest. Corruption of all kinds – illicit payoffs, bonus-money skimming, doping teenagers with performance-enhancing drugs – has been treated as the cost of doing business. And the fallout may finally strike the game with the sort of consequences that for decades have seemed inevitable.

A federal grand jury is looking into Major League Baseball teams’ international dealings and has issued subpoenas to club officials and other personnel involved in the transactions, three sources familiar with the probe told Yahoo Sports. Agents from the FBI have spearheaded the investigation, according to sources familiar with it, and lawyers from the Department of Justice who specialize in Foreign Corrupt Practices Act cases – which typically involve bribery of foreign officials – are involved as well.

Of course, the upside is that a large number of international players made more than without baseball. Many of those players helped their families and communities improve their living conditions. “Plundering” usually doesn’t leave so many people so well off.

I’m also not sure how one fixes the problems that do exist. Most of the people committing the shady to illegal acts are not under US jurisdiction. As long as young players have the promise of a much better life through baseball there will be people who go beyond what’s ethical. It seems the only way to end this is for these countries to develop good enough economies that their youngsters have other choices than baseball for success.

For now, we wait and see if the grand jury finds MLB teams complicit in the shady activities of the international market.



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Davis Sits

Chris Davis is not playing the last weekend of the season:

Davis isn’t injured. He’s just had enough of a miserable season that’s gotten worse down the stretch.

If he doesn’t play this weekend, Davis will finish with a .168 batting average, lowest by a qualifier in big league history. The previous record was .179, by Rob Deer in 1991 and Dan Uggla in 2013.

Note that the Orioles gave a big contract to a player who was at the end of his prime and had two great seasons under his belt, and a bunch of okay ones. Note that last season, in about the same number of PA, he hit .215/.309/.423. It’s amazing to me that when he did not show improvement on those dismal numbers that the Orioles didn’t bench him. This may become an instance of the Orioles literally cutting their losses and letting Davis go.



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Massive Tie Update

The Cardinals fall to the Cubs 8-4 as Chicago scores four runs off Adam Wainwright and four off the St. Louis bullpen. Kyle Hendricks made another great September start. The loss means the probability of a three-way tie in the Wild West is down to 0.009. For that to happen, the Nationals have to sweep the Rockies, the Cardinals need to win their last two games and Dodgers need to go 1-2. I doubt that will happen.



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Games of the Day

The Cardinals and Cubs both need a win as they play Friday afternoon. The Cardinals are trying to stay alive in the wild card race, while the Cubs are trying to lock down the NL Central title. Adam Wainwright takes on Kyle Hendricks. This may be Wainwright’s last start for the Cardinals. In his career with the team he is 15-9 in 44 appearances against the Cubs with a 3.94 ERA. Hendricks is finishing the season strong with a 1.67 ERA in five September starts. He walked four and struck out 28 in 32 1/3 innings in that time.

Washington sends Joe Ross against potential Cy Young candidate Kyle Freeland and the Rockies. A Colorado win and a Cardinals loss puts the Rockies in the playoffs. Ross struck out just three in 11 innings since returning from Tommy John surgery. He has yet to allow a home run, however. Freeland is 9-2 in Denver with a 2.36 ERA this season.

Finally, the Dodgers send Hyun-Jin Ryu against the Giants and Madison Bumgarner. Ryu held the Giants to two runs in 11 2/3 innings this season. Bumgarner allowed three home runs and six walks in 12 innings against the Dodgers.

Enjoy!

P.S. The best outcome for a potential three-way tie in the Wild West Race would be for the Cardinals to win and the Rockies to lose. If that happens, the Dodgers game can go either way.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Due to a lack of time today I am doing a top ten list.

0.351 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez.
0.330 — Robinson Cano batting against Martin Perez.
0.327 — Dee Gordon batting against Martin Perez.
0.315 — Corey Dickerson batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.314 — Mitch Haniger batting against Martin Perez.
0.312 — Christian Yelich batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.309 — David Peralta batting against Eric Lauer.
0.308 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Martin Perez.
0.305 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.304 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.351, 0.755 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez.
0.305, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.302, 0.739 — Jose Altuve batting against David Hess.
0.299, 0.729 — Miguel Andujar batting against Brian Johnson.
0.300, 0.728 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Joe Ross.
0.327, 0.728 — Dee Gordon batting against Martin Perez.
0.330, 0.727 — Robinson Cano batting against Martin Perez.
0.312, 0.727 — Christian Yelich batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.315, 0.727 — Corey Dickerson batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.297, 0.724 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Joe Ross.

Looks like it’s Segura today.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!



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Insist On The Highest Standards

Too often, as I work with organizations, teams, and individual, I find people “settling.”  By that, I mean, there seems to be some sort of fatalistic attitude or closed mindset that keeps them from doing their very best and seeking the very best from everyone around them.

We see it manifested in all sorts of ways:

Sales people not taking the time to prepare or research, because they are too busy.

Focusing more on what we do, than our customers’ business challenges because it’s too tough to understand what they care about.

Pitching, rather than engaging in deep conversations because that’s too tough.

Chasing bad quality deals, knowing our probability of closing them is lower than if we focused on our ICP.

Not using the sales process or developing a strong deal strategy because it requires too much work/thought.

Not hiring the best, but settling on what we get just to fill an open position.

Not coaching and developing your people because it takes too much time and is often frustrating.

Not expecting the best of your people.

Not addressing performance issues.

Sloppiness around meeting commitments–even things like being on time.

Constantly seeking short cuts or what’s easy (as opposed to simplifying).

Always finding excuses or assigning blame.

….and the list can go on.

Then, every once in a while, I run across an individual, team, or an organization that’s different.

They do the hard work.

They don’t take short cuts,

They are constantly learning and trying to improve.

They accept responsibility.

These people/organizations are, by no means, perfect.  Like all of us, they have successes and failures.  They tend to have more successes than failures, primarily because they learn from each experience and constantly seek to improve.  They tend to be top performers and achieve top performance more often than others.

Above all, the insist on the highest standards.  Personal, team, and organizational.  They have their own internal compasses that drive them to achieve, to be the best, to not compromise/settle in performance.  They have high expectations of themselves and everyone around them.

Interestingly, these high expectations tend to be contagious–they raise the standards of everyone around them.

As we think about how we improve our own performance and that of our organizations, perhaps the first step is simple, it’s all about constantly seeking and insisting on the highest possible standards in everything we do.  Seems like everything else sorts itself out.

 

Afterword:  While I write this, I’m listening to the news, dismayed by the terrible examples set by leaders in both our political parties, it seems few  have high standards of personal performance.  It’s a terrible example for everyone in the country and for those in other countries watching how our leaders perform.

 



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Best Batter Today

The top five did not play Thursday, so the order remains the same in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Christian Yelich, Anthony Rendon, Alex Bregman, Justin Turner, and Mike Trout lead the way into the final weekend of the season.



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Friday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Thursday, September 27, 2018

Assigning a Record

Tom Tango came up with the idea of assigned wins a few years ago. The idea was to create a score for each pitcher in the game, and the pitcher with the best score would get the win for the winning team, and the pitcher with the worst score would get the loss for the losing team. For someone like Blake Snell, his actual record and his assigned record are exactly the same. For Jacob deGrom, his record is quite different than his assigned record. He was not going to win 20 games with the Mets, but losing nine looks like it wasn’t really his fault. If his record was actually 13-3, there would have been less arguing about his credentials during the season.

Note Kyle Freeland has a large negative gap as well.



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A Fine of his Own

CC Sabathia retaliated for the Rays throwing one under Austin Romine‘s chin, and lost half a million dollars when he was ejected:

Up from the bench, out of the dugout sprang CC Sabathia, who in his final start of the season was cruising along with no-hit stuff (though he’d allowed a chippy, shift-aided single to Joey Wendle) and was but two innings away from the 155-inning incentive threshold that would automatically earn him a cool $500,000 bonus.

And the big man was hot.

“You throw a ball under a guy’s chin,” he would say later, still fuming, “that’s not a good spot.”

Sabathia threw his inside pitch low. I do not condone throwing at anyone at anytime, but if more pitchers lost $500K when they did, you might see less of it.



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Massive Tie Scenario Update

The Rockies beat the Phillies 5-3 Thursday afternoon, sweeping the four game series and putting Colorado in charge of the NL West and second wild card race. They lead the Dodgers by one game in the west and the Cardinals by two games in the Wild Card. The probability of the three teams ending tied is down to 0.035. The Rockies magic number is two to kill the big tie.

Trevor Story hit his 35th home run in the game, and now 54 of his 83 extra-base hits came at Coors. Antonio Senzatela allowed one run in 4 2/3 innings before the bullpen came in to lock down the game. The Rockies host the Nationals in the final three games, the Dodgers travel to San Francisco, and the Cardinals visit the Cubs. The Brewers host the Tigers. At this point, multiple two team ties are more likely than a three-way tie.



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Does Quota Matter?

There are a lot of posts, some of them very thoughtful, about whether “Quota” is a reasonable measure of sales performance.

I have to admit, I’m torn by this issue, but tend to think Quota is an important measure–though not the only measure.

If you’d allow me to think out loud.

  1. Everyone in an organization is accountable for producing “outcomes” they are responsible for producing.  The CEO is held accountable for revenue, profit, growth, and other outcome issues.  Product development is held accountable for new product development goals/launches/performance.  Manufacturing is held accountable for output, quality, and other measure.  Marketing is held accountable for…….  OK, I won’t get into that.  For sales, it’s not unreasonable to think that sales people/managers should be held accountable and measured on outcomes–which generally take the form of orders, revenues, growth.  That becomes a goal, which is sometimes called a “quota.”
  2. Perhaps repeating myself, everyone in an organization is accountable for producing results–not just doing activities.  If organizations are to achieve their purpose and goals, each person in the organization must have goals that contribute to those results and their progress in achieving the goals must be measured.  Sales people/managers are no exception, order/revenue/growth goals and attainment against them are important.
  3. Clearly, as a performance management tool, these goals have challenges.  Since they are outcome measures, they are historical–we only know our performance after the fact.  It’s critical to have measures that help us understand that we are on track to achieve those goals.  Identifying and tracking some of these critical leading activities help us assess whether we are on track to meet our goals.  Things like pipeline metrics (quality, volume, velocity) have been very powerful as leading metrics that help us understand whether we are on track to achieve our goals (quota).
  4. But for these leading metrics to be meaningful, it’s important that we understand the specific cause/effect relationships between the goal (Quota) and the leading activities that enable us to achieve that goal.  Here’s where the process of establishing these leading metrics go off the rails.  To often we don’t understand these linkages, too often, we don’t recognize these are different for each sales person.  As a result, we establish leading metrics and goals that are arbitrary and not connected to the outcomes we are trying to achieve.  Some examples:
    1. Let’s say we have 2 sales people, each with $1M quotas.  One has average deal sizes of $100K and win rates of 50%.  For that person, a healthy pipeline is 20 deals valued roughly at $2M.  The other has average deal sizes of $50K and win rates of 25%, or 2 times coverage.  For that person, a healthy pipeline is 80 deals valued roughly at $4M or 4 times coverage.  Yet too often, management establishes an arbitrary pipeline metric, for example 3 times coverage.  In this example, the second sales person meeting this 3 times coverage metric will not achieve their goal.  In fact, is likely to achieve only 75%.  You might think, the top performer will offset that.  But what happens is that forcing that person to get a 3 times coverage pipeline, defocuses the person on the opportunities they need to win.  She spends time hitting this arbitrary metrics, reducing focus on those deals they should win.  The other fallacy is that if the organization is more balanced to the lower performer than the higher performer, the 3 times metric sets things up for under performance.
    2. Another popular metric, is an arbitrary “calls” metric.  “You have to make 25 calls per day…..”  There are a number of issues with this–is that the right number, is it the right number for each person?  Do we understand the cause/effect relationship and how they relate to our ability to achieve our goals (quota)?  Too often, managers leveraging this arbitrary goal, upon seeing the team isn’t achieving the goal, sets another, equally arbitrary, but higher number.  At the same time, they have no call quality metric.  Are the calls to the right people, with value based/high impact discussions.  I once saw a sales person that met every call volume metric set.  When you looked at his calls, 25% were to his friends planning what they would do on the weekend, 50% of the calls were to people far outside the company’s ICP—yet he was always meeting his call activity goal.  The manager could never explain why this person met every call activity goal, but was never meeting his revenue quota.
    3. For these leading/activity metrics to be effective, managers must dig in and understand the cause/effect relationships that drive sales performance for each of their sales people.  Too few managers do this, they don’t take the time, they don’t understand the strengths and weaknesses of each sales person, they don’t understand the critical drivers for sales performance of each of these people.
  5. There is an argument that quota is not a great measure.  Recently, I commented on stunning research results from CSO Insights.  To get the details, click here:  Thinking About Sales Performance.  But roughly speaking, 94% of organizations are meeting their plans, yet only 54% of sales people are achieving their quotas.  Looking at this data, one might come to the conclusion that quota attainment is meaningless when compared to plan attainment.  Many would say, quota attainment is meaningless in looking at overall performance.  I, actually, come to a different conclusion, I think this data represent gross sales management malpractice.  Please read the article to understand my argument on this.
  6. Perhaps the problem with “quota” as a key metric, is that we are measuring the wrong things when we assign quotas.  Or in fact, what we think of as “quota,” is misunderstood.  Too often, quota is is established simply by looking at order, revenue, growth goals.  But sales is responsible for executing the corporate business strategy.  Corporate business strategies are never just focused on on revenue.  There are market, product line, customer satisfaction, retention, new customer acquisition, quality and other goals important to the corporation in achieving it’s goals.  Since the corporate goals are not simply order, revenue, growth goals, establishing key sales goals that look only at those items is not appropriate.  Perhaps, it is important to establish goals, consequently measure progress (which is what quota is) against a number of those key goals.  For example, goals around product line mix, around new customer acquisition, customer satisfaction more appropriately align our expectations of sales performance with the goals of the corporation.
  7. Related to the previous point, we automatically think of the word “quota” as a surrogate for revenue attainment.  The concept of quota is simply the measurement of our progress in achieving a goal.  In organizations, we have all sorts of “quotas,” some good, some bad.  For example, a goal of what % of new hires should be college hires, what % of orders are shipped on time, what % of bills are paid within a specified time.  The concept of quota is simply about establishing a goal and measuring our progress against that goal.  As we start to think about whether having quotas as a measure of sales performance is meaningful, we begin to see it’s a meaningless question.  We have to have goals, we have to measure our progress against those goals.  As a result, quotas are meaningful and important.  An issue is, are we measuring the right things and setting appropriate goals for what we are measuring?
  8. There is a separate issues about how we establish goals, which drive our “quotas.”  Very often, goals are arbitrary and unreasonable.  Whether they are revenue goals or activity goals like call volumes. are not established in ways that make sense or can be connected to the corporate goals.  For example, using the previous data, if roughly 94% of organizations are meeting their goals, yet only 54% of sales people are achieving their “quotas” or personal goals–there is a huge disconnect between organizational goals and individual goals.  This disconnect should cause us to think not about the value of quotas, but about the rationale we use in establishing performance goals and quotas.  This disconnect does not make sense and is demoralizing to sales people.  For example, how can a top managers be “meeting” their goals, yet so few of their people are achieving their goals?  Of course some overassignment is necessary, but this level of disconnect is unexplainable and irresponsible.
  9. Too often, when we speak about quota, what we are really talking about is compensation.  These are separate issues.  The establishment of goals, measuring our attainment against those goals, and how we pay compensate our people are different issues.
  10. As individuals and managers, we are responsible for maximizing individual and organizational performance.  To do this, we have to establish meaningful goals and we have to measure our performance against those goals.  We use those metrics to identify opportunities to improve.

As I walk through these thoughts, the issue of “is quota meaningful,” is really misleading.  Our goal is to maximize performance.  We need to establish goals by which we measure our attainment.  We need to make sure we are measuring the most meaningful/impactful way possible.  We need to make sure the goals we have established are reasonable.  Then we must hold ourselves and our teams accountable for achieving those goals.

As a result, quota is meaningful–but quota isn’t just about orders, revenue, growth.

 



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