The Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies all won on Saturday as the teams keep pace. That moved the probability of a three-way tie up to 0.0343. The highest probability of a tie happens at 89 wins, which means the Cardinals and the Dodgers go 3-4 the rest of the way, while the Rockies go 5-3. Note that it’s possible that if the Brewers had a bad week there could be a three-way tie for the two wild card slots, or a four-way tie for that and the NL West. A three-way for the NL Central and a two way tie for the NL West is also out there (but not tied with each other). St. Louis does play both the Brewers and the Cubs the last week of the season, so the Cardinals do control their destiny.
Cardinals fans hope it doesn’t go like this:
They would need the Cardinals to win today, take two of three from the Brewers, then sweep the Cubs. That would give the Cardinals 92 wins. The Cubs would then need to go 2-3 leading into that final series, and the Brewers would go 3-1 against Pittsburgh and Detroit.
For today, the more likely three-way tie for the Wild West would like to see the Rockies win again with both the Dodgers and Cardinals losing, but once again the Rockies winning is the most important element.
Note that the NL Wild Card game is scheduled for Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2018, so a massive tie of any kind will upset that schedule.
from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2OPfEN6
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