Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.305 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.302 — Wilson Ramos batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.301 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.300 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.300 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Estrada.
0.299 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.294 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zach Eflin.
0.291 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zach Eflin.
0.287 — Javier Baez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.285 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zach Eflin.
0.285 — Gerardo Parra batting against Zach Eflin.
0.282 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Estrada.
0.282 — Albert Almora batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.281 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.281 — Aramis Garcia batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.280 — Trevor Story batting against Zach Eflin.
0.278 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.278 — Alen Hanson batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.278 — Adam Jones batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.276 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.276 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Zach Eflin.
0.275 — David Dahl batting against Zach Eflin.
0.274 — Ben Zobrist batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.273 — Melky Cabrera batting against Dylan Covey.
0.273 — Joe Panik batting against Bryan Mitchell.

It looks like a good night for the Rockies hitters as they try to gain in the Wild West race.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.300, 0.735 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Estrada.
0.300, 0.734 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.302, 0.732 — Wilson Ramos batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.305, 0.731 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.299, 0.724 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.294, 0.722 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zach Eflin.
0.301, 0.721 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.291, 0.717 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zach Eflin.
0.276, 0.714 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.287, 0.708 — Javier Baez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.285, 0.707 — Gerardo Parra batting against Zach Eflin.
0.285, 0.707 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zach Eflin.
0.282, 0.706 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Estrada.
0.282, 0.704 — Albert Almora batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.281, 0.703 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.278, 0.700 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.259, 0.699 — Jose Martinez batting against Corbin Burnes.
0.278, 0.699 — Adam Jones batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.272, 0.698 — Corey Dickerson batting against Cole Hamels.
0.280, 0.691 — Trevor Story batting against Zach Eflin.
0.275, 0.690 — David Dahl batting against Zach Eflin.
0.231, 0.690 — Miguel Andujar batting against Diego Castillo.
0.273, 0.690 — Melky Cabrera batting against Dylan Covey.
0.276, 0.689 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Zach Eflin.
0.261, 0.688 — Robinson Cano batting against Daniel Mengden.

J.D. Martinez and Wilson Ramos are tied for the consensus best pick. Be careful to check if they are playing this evening.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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