Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.309 — David Peralta batting against Jacob Nix.
0.309 — Jose Altuve batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.301 — Daniel Murphy batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.294 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.294 — Michael Brantley batting against Jakob Junis.
0.294 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.293 — Anthony Rendon batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.293 — Miguel Andujar batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.289 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Jacob Nix.
0.288 — Christian Yelich batting against Daniel Norris.
0.287 — Jean Segura batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.287 — J.D. Martinez batting against Lance Lynn.
0.287 — Jon Jay batting against Jacob Nix.
0.286 — Javier Baez batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.284 — Jose Altuve batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.284 — Mookie Betts batting against Lance Lynn.
0.283 — Albert Almora batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.281 — Jose Peraza batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.281 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Daniel Norris.
0.279 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Jacob Nix.
0.278 — Jeff McNeil batting against Trevor Richards.
0.278 — Adam C Eaton batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.277 — Corey Dickerson batting against Michael Lorenzen.
0.276 — Nick Castellanos batting against Wade Miley.
0.275 — Adam Jones batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.275 — Jose Martinez batting against Cole Hamels.

Note that Jean Segura was taken out of the Mariners game last night due to lack of hustle.

“We’re going to play hard through the end of the year. I didn’t think Jean gave a really good effort trying to score from second and he came out of the game,” Servais said.

Segura is hitting .301 after a prolonged dip in the second half. Servais didn’t commit to play Segura in the final two games of the regular season.

Segura did not get a hit last night. I suspect some Beat the Streak players who lost a long streak because of that are upset this morning. Segura needs to be careful or he might wind up as a co-pilot.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.309, 0.742 — Jose Altuve batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.301, 0.735 — Daniel Murphy batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.284, 0.729 — Jose Altuve batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.293, 0.726 — Miguel Andujar batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.294, 0.722 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.294, 0.721 — Michael Brantley batting against Jakob Junis.
0.287, 0.720 — J.D. Martinez batting against Lance Lynn.
0.287, 0.719 — Jean Segura batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.294, 0.717 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.309, 0.716 — David Peralta batting against Jacob Nix.
0.288, 0.713 — Christian Yelich batting against Daniel Norris.
0.284, 0.712 — Mookie Betts batting against Lance Lynn.
0.274, 0.712 — Wilson Ramos batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.293, 0.711 — Anthony Rendon batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.275, 0.707 — Jose Martinez batting against Cole Hamels.
0.281, 0.707 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Daniel Norris.
0.286, 0.706 — Javier Baez batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.283, 0.705 — Albert Almora batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.281, 0.704 — Jose Peraza batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.271, 0.704 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.277, 0.703 — Corey Dickerson batting against Michael Lorenzen.
0.276, 0.700 — Nick Castellanos batting against Wade Miley.
0.264, 0.699 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.273, 0.699 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.274, 0.697 — Robinson Cano batting against Adrian Sampson.

It looks like an Altuve and Murphy double down day.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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