Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.354 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez.
0.334 — Robinson Cano batting against Martin Perez.
0.331 — Dee Gordon batting against Martin Perez.
0.318 — Miguel Andujar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.317 — Mitch Haniger batting against Martin Perez.
0.314 — Michael Brantley batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.312 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Martin Perez.
0.304 — Jeff McNeil batting against Erick Fedde.
0.303 — Jose Martinez batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.302 — Ryon Healy batting against Martin Perez.
0.302 — J.D. Martinez batting against Adam Plutko.
0.301 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.301 — Nelson Cruz batting against Martin Perez.
0.299 — Denard Span batting against Martin Perez.
0.298 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Alex Cobb.
0.297 — Kristopher Negron batting against Martin Perez.
0.295 — Mookie Betts batting against Adam Plutko.
0.291 — Scooter Gennett batting against Trevor Richards.
0.289 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.285 — Melky Cabrera batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.285 — Francisco Lindor batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.282 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.282 — Corey Dickerson batting against Wade Miley.
0.282 — Nick Castellanos batting against Brad Keller.
0.281 — Joey Wendle batting against Ryan Borucki.

Segura is 4 for 16 against Perez, but Haniger is 7 for 19.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.354, 0.759 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez.
0.301, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.318, 0.737 — Miguel Andujar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.331, 0.733 — Dee Gordon batting against Martin Perez.
0.334, 0.732 — Robinson Cano batting against Martin Perez.
0.314, 0.731 — Michael Brantley batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.302, 0.729 — J.D. Martinez batting against Adam Plutko.
0.303, 0.724 — Jose Martinez batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.291, 0.720 — Scooter Gennett batting against Trevor Richards.
0.277, 0.718 — Wilson Ramos batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.295, 0.716 — Mookie Betts batting against Adam Plutko.
0.298, 0.713 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Alex Cobb.
0.304, 0.711 — Jeff McNeil batting against Erick Fedde.
0.317, 0.710 — Mitch Haniger batting against Martin Perez.
0.280, 0.710 — Whit Merrifield batting against Daniel Norris.
0.282, 0.709 — Corey Dickerson batting against Wade Miley.
0.282, 0.707 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.282, 0.706 — Nick Castellanos batting against Brad Keller.
0.289, 0.705 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.312, 0.705 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Martin Perez.
0.274, 0.704 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zachary Godley.
0.281, 0.702 — Joey Wendle batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.272, 0.702 — Christian Yelich batting against Nick Kingham.
0.278, 0.701 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Adam Plutko.
0.279, 0.700 — Justin Turner batting against Joey Lucchesi.

Segura is the unanimous first choice, with a number of players tied for second.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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