Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.327 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.315 — Javier Baez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.309 — Kevan Smith batting against Shane Bieber.
0.308 — Aramis Garcia batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.308 — Albert Almora batting against Ivan Nova.
0.307 — Alen Hanson batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.307 — Leury Garcia batting against Shane Bieber.
0.304 — Joe Panik batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.303 — Evan Longoria batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.301 — Steven Duggar batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.300 — Brandon Crawford batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.298 — Ben Zobrist batting against Ivan Nova.
0.298 — Jose Abreu batting against Shane Bieber.
0.298 — Welington Castillo batting against Shane Bieber.
0.295 — Nick Hundley batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.294 — David Peralta batting against Ross Stripling.
0.294 — Austin Slater batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.293 — Hunter Pence batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.293 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.292 — Wilson Ramos batting against German Marquez.
0.292 — Ryan LaMarre batting against Shane Bieber.
0.291 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.291 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.291 — Scooter Gennett batting against Heath Fillmyer.
0.290 — Mookie Betts batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.

It might be a good day for the Giants offense. I’m surprised Baez doesn’t rank higher daily given his high BA and low walk rate. Note that the Red Sox and Orioles are playing a double header today, so be careful which game you pick if you go in that direction.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.327, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.283, 0.727 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Reid-Foley.
0.315, 0.726 — Javier Baez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.292, 0.723 — Wilson Ramos batting against German Marquez.
0.291, 0.722 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.293, 0.722 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.291, 0.720 — Scooter Gennett batting against Heath Fillmyer.
0.308, 0.719 — Albert Almora batting against Ivan Nova.
0.291, 0.717 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.290, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.268, 0.713 — Jean Segura batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.294, 0.712 — David Peralta batting against Ross Stripling.
0.267, 0.710 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ryan Meisinger.
0.309, 0.710 — Kevan Smith batting against Shane Bieber.
0.286, 0.708 — Gerardo Parra batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.286, 0.707 — Nolan Arenado batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.307, 0.706 — Leury Garcia batting against Shane Bieber.
0.282, 0.706 — Whit Merrifield batting against Cody Reed.
0.286, 0.704 — Anthony Rendon batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.265, 0.703 — Mookie Betts batting against Ryan Meisinger.
0.263, 0.703 — Jose Martinez batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.298, 0.702 — Jose Abreu batting against Shane Bieber.
0.269, 0.702 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Sean Reid-Foley.
0.273, 0.700 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jose Quintana.
0.279, 0.700 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Yohander Mendez.

Murphy and Baez are the consensus 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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