Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.334 — Jean Segura batting against Brett Anderson.
0.322 — Jose Altuve batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.317 — Robinson Cano batting against Brett Anderson.
0.312 — Dee Gordon batting against Brett Anderson.
0.312 — Whit Merrifield batting against Matt Harvey.
0.306 — Wilson Ramos batting against Chad Bettis.
0.305 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.301 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.301 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chris Archer.
0.298 — Scooter Gennett batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.297 — Raul Mondesi batting against Matt Harvey.
0.297 — Mitch Haniger batting against Brett Anderson.
0.294 — Freddie Freeman batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.291 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.291 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Brett Anderson.
0.290 — Mookie Betts batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.289 — Javier Baez batting against Chris Archer.
0.288 — Christian Yelich batting against Austin Gomber.
0.286 — Nick Markakis batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.285 — Corey Dickerson batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.284 — Ramon Laureano batting against Mike Leake.
0.283 — Ryon Healy batting against Brett Anderson.
0.283 — Albert Almora batting against Chris Archer.
0.282 — Nelson Cruz batting against Brett Anderson.
0.281 — Matt Chapman batting against Mike Leake.
0.281 — Jose Peraza batting against Eric Skoglund.

Segura is 4 for 9 with one K against Anderson in their careers.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.334, 0.751 — Jean Segura batting against Brett Anderson.
0.322, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.306, 0.733 — Wilson Ramos batting against Chad Bettis.
0.301, 0.732 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chris Archer.
0.312, 0.727 — Whit Merrifield batting against Matt Harvey.
0.317, 0.726 — Robinson Cano batting against Brett Anderson.
0.298, 0.726 — Scooter Gennett batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.312, 0.724 — Dee Gordon batting against Brett Anderson.
0.305, 0.723 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.291, 0.722 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.290, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.301, 0.714 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.280, 0.711 — Jose Martinez batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.288, 0.711 — Christian Yelich batting against Austin Gomber.
0.277, 0.710 — Michael Brantley batting against James Shields.
0.294, 0.710 — Freddie Freeman batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.274, 0.708 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.289, 0.706 — Javier Baez batting against Chris Archer.
0.280, 0.704 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Austin Gomber.
0.285, 0.703 — Corey Dickerson batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.271, 0.703 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.280, 0.702 — Justin Turner batting against Matt Koch.
0.259, 0.702 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jacob Faria.
0.281, 0.701 — Jose Peraza batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.274, 0.701 — Eddie Rosario batting against Spencer Turnbull.
0.283, 0.701 — Albert Almora batting against Chris Archer.

Two systems agree, it’s a Segura and Altuve day.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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