Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brett Anderson.
0.310 — Jean Segura batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.310 — Corey Dickerson batting against Sal Romano.
0.305 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Brett Anderson.
0.304 — David Fletcher batting against Brett Anderson.
0.304 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.300 — Mike Trout batting against Brett Anderson.
0.300 — Joey Wendle batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.300 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ranger Suarez.
0.298 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Erick Fedde.
0.296 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Erick Fedde.
0.295 — Robinson Cano batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.295 — Nolan Arenado batting against Erick Fedde.
0.294 — Gerardo Parra batting against Erick Fedde.
0.294 — Jose Altuve batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.293 — Matt M Duffy batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.293 — Justin Turner batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.293 — Jose Martinez batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.292 — Jose M Fernandez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.291 — Eddie Rosario batting against Dylan Covey.
0.290 — Michael Brantley batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.290 — Starling Marte batting against Sal Romano.
0.290 — David Dahl batting against Erick Fedde.
0.289 — Mallex Smith batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.288 — Nick Markakis batting against Ranger Suarez.

It looks like the Angels should go out on a high note.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.310, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.294, 0.734 — Jose Altuve batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.326, 0.730 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brett Anderson.
0.304, 0.725 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.310, 0.725 — Corey Dickerson batting against Sal Romano.
0.287, 0.724 — Miguel Andujar batting against Rick Porcello.
0.298, 0.721 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Erick Fedde.
0.284, 0.720 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jonathan Loaisiga.
0.290, 0.719 — Michael Brantley batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.296, 0.717 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Erick Fedde.
0.293, 0.715 — Jose Martinez batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.287, 0.715 — Scooter Gennett batting against Clay Holmes.
0.300, 0.713 — Joey Wendle batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.291, 0.713 — Eddie Rosario batting against Dylan Covey.
0.295, 0.712 — Nolan Arenado batting against Erick Fedde.
0.281, 0.712 — Mookie Betts batting against Jonathan Loaisiga.
0.294, 0.712 — Gerardo Parra batting against Erick Fedde.
0.300, 0.712 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ranger Suarez.
0.281, 0.710 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.295, 0.710 — Robinson Cano batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.293, 0.709 — Justin Turner batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.287, 0.709 — Anthony Rendon batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.283, 0.707 — Christian Yelich batting against Spencer Turnbull.
0.290, 0.703 — David Dahl batting against Erick Fedde.
0.287, 0.703 — Dee Gordon batting against Yovani Gallardo.

Segura did play last night, so his benching for lack of hustle was temporary. He is the consensus first pick, with Simmons second.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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