J.D. Martinez went 0 for 2 with two walks in the Red Sox win over the Indians Friday night. Mookie Betts did not play, so Martinez fell further behind in the batting title race, and now has a probability of 0.095 of winning the batting title. Meanwhile, Khris Davis hit two home runs and drove in three runs. That lowers Martinez’s probability of at least tying for the home run title to 0.021 and at least tying for the RBI title to 0.87. His chance of tying for both the HR and RBI titles based on simulation is 0.036. So the probability of Martinez winning the triple crown is somewhere between 0.0017 and 0.0034. It’s not happening. If Martinez should go four for four with four home runs, I’ll revisit the probabilities, but at the moment, it looks like his chances for the rare feat are over.
from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2pwAxBj
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