Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.323 — Christian Yelich batting against Ivan Nova.
0.313 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Ivan Nova.
0.312 — Justin Turner batting against Eric Lauer.
0.307 — Scooter Gennett batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.302 — Jeff McNeil batting against Joe Ross.
0.301 — Manny Machado batting against Eric Lauer.
0.300 — Matt Kemp batting against Eric Lauer.
0.295 — Freddie Freeman batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.293 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.289 — David Freese batting against Eric Lauer.
0.288 — Hernan Perez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287 — Nick Markakis batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.287 — Jose Peraza batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.285 — Yasiel Puig batting against Eric Lauer.
0.281 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Ivan Nova.
0.281 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez.
0.279 — Nick Castellanos batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.279 — Domingo Santana batting against Ivan Nova.
0.278 — Ronald Acuna batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.278 — Charlie Culberson batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.276 — Adrian Beltre batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.274 — Jean Segura batting against Connor Sadzeck.
0.274 — Ozzie Albies batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.274 — Manuel Pina batting against Ivan Nova.
0.274 — Ryan Braun batting against Ivan Nova.
0.274 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Ivan Nova.

Yelich is both today’s best batter, and the most likely to get a hit according to the Log5 method.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.323, 0.734 — Christian Yelich batting against Ivan Nova.
0.293, 0.732 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.307, 0.731 — Scooter Gennett batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.313, 0.726 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Ivan Nova.
0.312, 0.720 — Justin Turner batting against Eric Lauer.
0.302, 0.719 — Jeff McNeil batting against Joe Ross.
0.274, 0.717 — Jean Segura batting against Connor Sadzeck.
0.295, 0.714 — Freddie Freeman batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.271, 0.707 — Miguel Andujar batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.263, 0.707 — Daniel Murphy batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.281, 0.705 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez.
0.253, 0.705 — J.D. Martinez batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.300, 0.704 — Matt Kemp batting against Eric Lauer.
0.301, 0.704 — Manny Machado batting against Eric Lauer.
0.287, 0.704 — Jose Peraza batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.266, 0.702 — Jose Martinez batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.279, 0.700 — Nick Castellanos batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.266, 0.700 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke.
0.287, 0.700 — Nick Markakis batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.265, 0.697 — Whit Merrifield batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.240, 0.696 — Wilson Ramos batting against Julio Teheran.
0.263, 0.695 — Joey Wendle batting against Sean Reid-Foley.
0.270, 0.694 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.271, 0.693 — Adam Jones batting against CC Sabathia.
0.261, 0.691 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zack Greinke.

Yelich is number one again, and Cain is the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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