Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Due to a lack of time today I am doing a top ten list.

0.351 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez.
0.330 — Robinson Cano batting against Martin Perez.
0.327 — Dee Gordon batting against Martin Perez.
0.315 — Corey Dickerson batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.314 — Mitch Haniger batting against Martin Perez.
0.312 — Christian Yelich batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.309 — David Peralta batting against Eric Lauer.
0.308 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Martin Perez.
0.305 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.304 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.351, 0.755 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez.
0.305, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.302, 0.739 — Jose Altuve batting against David Hess.
0.299, 0.729 — Miguel Andujar batting against Brian Johnson.
0.300, 0.728 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Joe Ross.
0.327, 0.728 — Dee Gordon batting against Martin Perez.
0.330, 0.727 — Robinson Cano batting against Martin Perez.
0.312, 0.727 — Christian Yelich batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.315, 0.727 — Corey Dickerson batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.297, 0.724 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Joe Ross.

Looks like it’s Segura today.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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