Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — Whit Merrifield batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.334 — Jean Segura batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.322 — Raul Mondesi batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.315 — Robinson Cano batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.310 — Dee Gordon batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.307 — Michael Brantley batting against Glenn Sparkman.
0.305 — Wilson Ramos batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.304 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jason Vargas.
0.302 — Jose Altuve batting against David Hess.
0.297 — Nick Markakis batting against Jason Vargas.
0.297 — Mitch Haniger batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.292 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.290 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.289 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jon Lester.
0.288 — Salvador Perez batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.288 — Adrian Beltre batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.288 — Ronald Acuna batting against Jason Vargas.
0.288 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against David Hess.
0.285 — Charlie Culberson batting against Jason Vargas.
0.283 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jason Vargas.
0.282 — Melky Cabrera batting against Glenn Sparkman.
0.282 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jason Vargas.
0.282 — Denard Span batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.282 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.281 — Ryon Healy batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.281 — Johan Camargo batting against Jason Vargas.
0.281 — Nelson Cruz batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.281 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Jason Vargas.
0.281 — Meibrys Viloria batting against Josh Tomlin.

Merrifield turned out to be a bright spot for the Royals, as he became a middle infielder who gets on base with a bit of pop. With 42 doubles, three triples, and 41 stolen bases, he puts himself in scoring position.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.334, 0.744 — Jean Segura batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.338, 0.741 — Whit Merrifield batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.302, 0.739 — Jose Altuve batting against David Hess.
0.305, 0.729 — Wilson Ramos batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.307, 0.727 — Michael Brantley batting against Glenn Sparkman.
0.315, 0.717 — Robinson Cano batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.269, 0.716 — Daniel Murphy batting against Trevor Williams.
0.310, 0.715 — Dee Gordon batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.288, 0.714 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against David Hess.
0.304, 0.714 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jason Vargas.
0.322, 0.711 — Raul Mondesi batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.289, 0.709 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jon Lester.
0.272, 0.705 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.271, 0.702 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.297, 0.701 — Nick Markakis batting against Jason Vargas.
0.288, 0.699 — Adrian Beltre batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.265, 0.697 — Eddie Rosario batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.282, 0.695 — Melky Cabrera batting against Glenn Sparkman.
0.271, 0.695 — Joey Wendle batting against CC Sabathia.
0.267, 0.693 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.282, 0.693 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.267, 0.693 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.262, 0.692 — Nick Castellanos batting against Gabriel Moya.
0.297, 0.691 — Mitch Haniger batting against Ariel Jurado.
0.238, 0.691 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jaime Schultz.

It’s a Merrifield and Segura double down day.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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