Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Kevan Smith batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.313 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.311 — Jose Abreu batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.308 — Anthony Rendon batting against Jason Vargas.
0.304 — Joey Wendle batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.302 — Matt M Duffy batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.301 — Omar Narvaez batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.299 — Ryan LaMarre batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.298 — Welington Castillo batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.298 — Avisail Garcia batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.296 — Adam C Eaton batting against Jason Vargas.
0.296 — Tim Anderson batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.294 — Mallex Smith batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.289 — Trea Turner batting against Jason Vargas.
0.287 — Juan Soto batting against Jason Vargas.
0.286 — Daniel Palka batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.285 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jeff Brigham.
0.283 — Jose Rondon batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.283 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Jason Vargas.
0.281 — J.D. Martinez batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.275 — Roman Quinn batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.272 — Miguel Andujar batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.272 — Freddie Freeman batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.272 — Michael Brantley batting against James Shields.
0.272 — Starlin Castro batting against Cody Reed.

The White Sox appear to match-up well against Tomlin.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.313, 0.737 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.281, 0.720 — J.D. Martinez batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.304, 0.719 — Joey Wendle batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.321, 0.718 — Kevan Smith batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.285, 0.717 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jeff Brigham.
0.302, 0.714 — Matt M Duffy batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.308, 0.714 — Anthony Rendon batting against Jason Vargas.
0.311, 0.712 — Jose Abreu batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.272, 0.709 — Miguel Andujar batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.272, 0.704 — Michael Brantley batting against James Shields.
0.294, 0.701 — Mallex Smith batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.296, 0.699 — Adam C Eaton batting against Jason Vargas.
0.298, 0.699 — Avisail Garcia batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.272, 0.699 — Freddie Freeman batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.268, 0.697 — Mookie Betts batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.289, 0.694 — Trea Turner batting against Jason Vargas.
0.298, 0.694 — Welington Castillo batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.272, 0.692 — Starlin Castro batting against Cody Reed.
0.269, 0.692 — Jose Peraza batting against Jeff Brigham.
0.301, 0.692 — Omar Narvaez batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.263, 0.690 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jorge Lopez.
0.259, 0.690 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.296, 0.688 — Tim Anderson batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.248, 0.687 — Whit Merrifield batting against Matt Boyd.
0.256, 0.686 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Masahiro Tanaka.

Ramos and Kevan Smith are the consensus 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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