Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.329 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Martin Perez
0.322 — Elvis Andrus batting against Rick Porcello
0.316 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Adam Wainwright
0.311 — Dee Gordon batting against Adam Wainwright
0.310 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Adam Wainwright
0.309 — Martin Prado batting against Adam Wainwright
0.307 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Martin Perez
0.306 — Mookie Betts batting against Martin Perez
0.305 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Matz
0.301 — Didi Gregorius batting against Marcus Stroman

It would appear to be a good day to pick Boston and Miami players. The Red Sox gave Bogaerts an off day on Sunday due to left groin tightness, so check to see if he will be in the starting lineup. Also, Wainwright allows a much lower hit average at home than on the road this season, so pick carefully.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.305, 0.755 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Matz.
0.329, 0.748 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Martin Perez.
0.311, 0.732 — Dee Gordon batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.322, 0.731 — Elvis Andrus batting against Rick Porcello.
0.283, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Castillo.
0.309, 0.730 — Martin Prado batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.316, 0.727 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.310, 0.727 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.283, 0.727 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luis Castillo.
0.306, 0.725 — Mookie Betts batting against Martin Perez.
0.307, 0.725 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Martin Perez.

Murphy beats out Bogaerts for the top spot in the NN, but Bogaerts would be the consensus choice. If Bogaerts can’t play, Andrus would be the consensus choice.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Franchy Cordero	27
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Allen Cordoba	23
Avisail Garcia	22
Eric Fryer	22
Peter Kozma	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Mark Zagunis	18
Alexi Amarista	17
Trey Mancini	17
Sam Travis	17
C.J. Cron	15
Greg Bird	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Hyun Soo Kim	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Odubel Herrera	14
Lewis Brinson	14
Jay Bruce	14
Chris Coghlan	13
Joshua Phegley	13
Patrick Kivlehan	13
Mark Reynolds	13
Dexter Fowler	13
Keon Broxton	13
Kevin Pillar	12
Matt Joyce	12
Matt Holliday	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Leonys Martin	12
Rob Refsnyder	12
Jose Lobaton	12
Ben Zobrist	12
Albert Almora	11
Devin Mesoraco	11
Tyler Wade	11
Victor Martinez	11
Matt Davidson	11
Starling Marte	11
Luke Maile	11
Taylor Featherston	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Yandy Diaz	10
Josh Harrison	10
Matthew Szczur	10
Enrique Hernandez	10
Wil Myers	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Josh Donaldson	10
Hunter Pence	10
Jed Lowrie	10
Timothy Beckham	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Jorge Polanco	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Chris Gimenez	10
Rene Rivera	10
Cory Spangenberg	10
Alex Bregman	10
Miguel Cabrera	10
Tom J Murphy	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Jaycob Brugman	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Tyler Collins	10

Good luck!

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