Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.322 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.317 — Jose Pirela batting against Josh Tomlin
0.312 — Manuel Margot batting against Josh Tomlin
0.306 — Cory Spangenberg batting against Josh Tomlin
0.306 — Jon Jay batting against Zach Davies
0.304 — Carlos Asuaje batting against Josh Tomlin
0.303 — Buster Posey batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.302 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Michael Wacha
0.299 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Michael Wacha
0.299 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Wacha
If you are a fan of the Padres, today is the day to see some offense. Tomlin gets hit quite a bit, a .325 BA with a .348 OBP. That’s good for a .315 hit average allowed this season. As a point of comparison, Daniel Murphy owns a .310 hit average in 2017. So Tomlin basically turns opponents into Murphy. That’s not the way to keep a career going.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.322, 0.767 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.294, 0.743 — Jean Segura batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.291, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.283, 0.733 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Sal Romano.
0.303, 0.727 — Buster Posey batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.299, 0.725 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Wacha.
0.279, 0.725 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sal Romano.
0.299, 0.723 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Michael Wacha.
0.295, 0.721 — Martin Prado batting against Michael Wacha.
0.302, 0.719 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Michael Wacha.
The NN perfers the hacking hitters of the Marlins against Michael Wacha, as batting ability figures more heavily than the pitcher faced. Both systems pick Murphy #1, however. Buster Posey would be the consensus second choice. As you can see below, Posey is also due!
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2utg6qs
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