Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.336 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vance Worley
0.335 — Jose Altuve batting against Derek Holland
0.333 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Austin Pruitt
0.323 — Ender Inciarte batting against Zach Eflin
0.319 — Brandon Phillips batting against Zach Eflin
0.315 — Howie Kendrick batting against Vance Worley
0.314 — Matt Kemp batting against Zach Eflin
0.314 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zach Eflin
0.313 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luis Perdomo
0.313 — Jean Segura batting against Kendall Graveman

Murphy is 12 for 22 against Worley career, the highest BA (.545) Murphy owns against any pitcher he faced at least 20 times. Altuve is 8 for 28 against Holland.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.335, 0.778 — Jose Altuve batting against Derek Holland.
0.336, 0.769 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vance Worley.
0.333, 0.750 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Austin Pruitt.
0.313, 0.740 — Jean Segura batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.323, 0.738 — Ender Inciarte batting against Zach Eflin.
0.319, 0.735 — Brandon Phillips batting against Zach Eflin.
0.315, 0.730 — Howie Kendrick batting against Vance Worley.
0.296, 0.728 — Jose Ramirez batting against German Marquez.
0.313, 0.722 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.314, 0.722 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zach Eflin.

The NN likes Altuve a little more than Murphy. Seems like a good night to double down.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Christopher Herrmann	27
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	23
Raul Mondesi	23
Joc Pederson	21
Arismendy Alcantara	20
Mark Trumbo	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Chris Stewart	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Joe Mauer	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Jorge Soler	18
Buster Posey	17
Alcides Escobar	16
Tony John Wolters	16
Eric Sogard	16
Victor Martinez	16
Rio Ruiz	15
Mike Zunino	15
Martin Maldonado	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Greg Bird	15
Paul Janish	15
Cristhian Adames	14
Allen Cordoba	14
Corey Dickerson	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Austin Romine	14
Lewis Brinson	13
Stephen Drew	13
Matthew Adams	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Nick Ahmed	12
Martin Prado	12
Jay Bruce	12
Avisail Garcia	12
Jesse Winker	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Asdrubal Cabrera	12
Howie Kendrick	11
Eduardo Escobar	11
Matthew Szczur	11
Justin Upton	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Brock Stassi	11
Jose Lobaton	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Alex Presley	11
Jose Reyes	11
Salvador Perez	11
Tommy Joseph	11
Alex Gordon	11
Yandy Diaz	10
Tom Murphy	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Brock Holt	10
Zach Granite	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Carlos Correa	10
Jordy Mercer	10
Kaleb Cowart	10
Jabari Blash	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Albert Pujols	10
Tyler Collins	10

Howie Kendrick appears to have cooled off a bit.

Good luck!

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