Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.347 — Jose Altuve batting against Miguel A Gonzalez
0.339 — Manuel Pina batting against Bartolo Colon
0.337 — Ryan Braun batting against Bartolo Colon
0.336 — Orlando Arcia batting against Bartolo Colon
0.330 — Hernan Perez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.328 — Travis Shaw batting against Bartolo Colon
0.322 — Elvis Andrus batting against Rafael Montero
0.315 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Bartolo Colon
0.312 — Domingo Santana batting against Bartolo Colon
0.310 — Eric Sogard batting against Bartolo Colon

Bartolo Colon appears to be the most hittable pitcher in baseball. Despite Colon’s ability to give up hits without walking batters, Altuve still springs to the top of the Log5 list. With a two for four Tuesday night, Altuve is batting .365 on the season.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.347, 0.782 — Jose Altuve batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.297, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Conley.
0.307, 0.741 — Gerardo Parra batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.298, 0.737 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.337, 0.736 — Ryan Braun batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.291, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.322, 0.731 — Elvis Andrus batting against Rafael Montero.
0.339, 0.729 — Manuel Pina batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.336, 0.727 — Orlando Arcia batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.304, 0.725 — Eric Hosmer batting against Mike Leake.

The NN results see less Colon, and make Altuve the unanimous choice. Ryan Braun is the consensus second choice if you are thinking of doubling down.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Christopher Herrmann	27
Joc Pederson	25
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Mark Trumbo	20
Alcides Escobar	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Arismendy Alcantara	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Chris Stewart	19
Jorge Soler	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Martin Maldonado	18
Eric Sogard	16
Victor Martinez	16
Tommy Joseph	16
Jay Bruce	16
Tony John Wolters	16
Paul Janish	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Greg Bird	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Justin Upton	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Jose Reyes	14
Corey Dickerson	14
Allen Cordoba	14
Wil Myers	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Austin Romine	14
Jesus Aguilar	13
Chris Coghlan	13
A.J. Pollock	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Albert Pujols	13
Stephen Drew	13
Bradley Zimmer	13
Martin Prado	12
Gary Sanchez	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Alex Gordon	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Matthew Szczur	12
Danny Ortiz	11
Amed Rosario	11
Nomar Mazara	11
Alex Presley	11
Cory Spangenberg	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Howie Kendrick	11
Jose Ramirez	11
Eduardo Escobar	11
Kelby Tomlinson	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
J.T. Realmuto	11
Mallex Smith	11
Salvador Perez	11
Brock Stassi	11
Kaleb Cowart	10
Tom Murphy	10
Zach Granite	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Brock Holt	10
Yandy Diaz	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Jabari Blash	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Jonathan Lucroy	10
Tyler Collins	10
Carlos Correa	10

Good luck!

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