Elbow Blow To the Dodgers

Dodgers shortstop and young star Corey Seager needs Tommy John surgery:

The Los Angeles Dodgers have announced that shortstop Corey Seager will miss the rest of the season and will undergo Tommy John surgery to fix a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right arm.

Seager, the 2016 NL Rookie of the Year and two-time All-Star, has two home runs, 13 RBIs and a slash line of .267/.348/.396 in 26 games this season.

Seager averaged 6.5 WAR a season his first two full seasons with the Dodgers. That’s an awful lot of wins to make up, especially with the Dodgers off to a slow start two other hitting stars on the disabled list.

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Ahmed and the High Pitch

East Longmeadow’s own Nick Ahmed‘s improvement this year came from laying off the low pitch.

Last season, Ahmed’s low-pitch swing rate ranked in the highest 12% of all hitters. So far this season, it ranks in the lowest 5% of all hitters. This is something Ahmed has implemented almost instantly, which seems to reflect a discerning batter’s eye. Ahmed is seeing the pitches he doesn’t like out of the hand, and now, for the most part, he’s spitting on them. This is reminiscent of one of Aaron Hicks‘ big 2017 adjustments, and it’s also an interesting change in an era in which more pitchers are trying to avoid throwing low sinkers to begin with. Ahmed wants to swing at pitches up. That’s where he finds his pop and line drives. For one month, at least, he has clearly been successful.

Nice to see a local product make good. The area did well that year, as a student from rival Longmeadow, my home town, is now the Nationals beat writer.

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Games of the Day

The Pirates travel to Washington, with the teams in very different situations than were expected at the start of the season. The Pirates appeared to be one of the “tanking” teams, having traded away their best hitter and their best pitcher during the winter. The go into Washington leading the NL Central by half a game over the defending division champion Cubs. The Nationals looked like a super team, filled with stars on the mound and at the plate. Injuries decimated the team, and they are four games under .500 in fourth place, six games behind the Mets. This series forces us to remember that a bad MLB team can do a lot right, and a good MLB can do things poorly, and that luck can play a big part in determing a champion.

The Dodgers are suffering a similar fate to the Nationals as they head into Phoenix to face the Diamondbacks. Los Angeles sits three games under .500 and seven games behind Arizona. Ross Stripling makes his first start of 2018 after 10 relief appearances. He struck out 16 in 14 1/3 innings without allowing a home run. Zack Greinke takes the hill for the Diamondbacks. Greinke shows great control this year, with 32 strikeouts and just three walks in 30 innings. He might be in the strike zone too much, however, as he allowed six home runs. That’s a big reason for his 4.80 ERA.

Enjoy!

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Weekly Look at Offense

After four full weeks of the season, 2018 is running slightly ahead of 2017 at the same point (all comparisons in this post are through four weeks). Games produced 8.93 runs per game so far, while in 2017 games came in at 8.84 runs per game. Week four in 2017 saw runs spike up, while this year runs stayed about the same as week three.

Home runs are slightly down this season, while walks and strikeout are way up. We are seeing 1.2 more K per game, which is a huge jump. The thing that surprises me, however is that despite the higher number of strikeouts, there are more in-play hits (1b, 2b, 3b), although the rise there is slight (14.50 in 2018 versus 14.42 in 2017). More strikeouts are supposed to lead to fewer hits, but that’s not the case here. I suspect the rise in walks is helping to bring the top of the lineup to the plate more often, so the better hitters are getting more of a chance in games.

More strikeouts have not led to a collapse of offense. If batters have adjusted to strikeout pitchers, maybe deception pitchers might have an advantage in this environment. CC Sabathia‘s game Sunday night might be a good example of that.

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.314 — Mallex Smith batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.312 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.312 — Jose Altuve batting against Sonny Gray.
0.307 — Joey Wendle batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.303 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.296 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.296 — C.J. Cron batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.289 — Denard Span batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.288 — Jesus Sucre batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.284 — Daniel Robertson batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.280 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.277 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.276 — Matt Kemp batting against Zack Greinke.
0.275 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.273 — Carlos Correa batting against Sonny Gray.
0.271 — Johnny D Field batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.270 — Jose Peraza batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.270 — Odubel Herrera batting against Daniel Straily.
0.269 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jason Hammel.
0.268 — Mookie Betts batting against Jason Hammel.
0.268 — Albert Almora batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.267 — Javier Baez batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.266 — Cody Bellinger batting against Zack Greinke.
0.266 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Brandon Finnegan.
0.266 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jeff Samardzija.

It a great day to pick a Rays player. Zimmermann is allowing a high BA with few walks, although most of that happened on the road.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.312, 0.747 — Jose Altuve batting against Sonny Gray.
0.312, 0.718 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.314, 0.712 — Mallex Smith batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.280, 0.708 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.307, 0.700 — Joey Wendle batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.303, 0.698 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.277, 0.696 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.253, 0.692 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jon Lester.
0.270, 0.691 — Odubel Herrera batting against Daniel Straily.
0.275, 0.691 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.262, 0.691 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.269, 0.689 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jason Hammel.
0.296, 0.689 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.296, 0.688 — C.J. Cron batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.253, 0.688 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jon Lester.
0.265, 0.687 — Michael Brantley batting against Cole Hamels.
0.268, 0.687 — Mookie Betts batting against Jason Hammel.
0.276, 0.685 — Matt Kemp batting against Zack Greinke.
0.265, 0.685 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.266, 0.685 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.268, 0.685 — Albert Almora batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.273, 0.684 — Carlos Correa batting against Sonny Gray.
0.289, 0.684 — Denard Span batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.270, 0.682 — Jose Peraza batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.259, 0.680 — David Peralta batting against Ross Stripling.

Jose Altuve pops to the top against Sonny Gray. That’s a tough choice, as Gray is pitching poorly this season, but longer term he’s pretty good. Altuve has seen Gray a lot, 11 for 30 against him for their careers. Smith and Ramos are tied for consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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Best Batter Today

Mike Trout stands atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings this morning. The Yankees beat the Angels 2-1 Sunday night, but the big three did little in the game. Trout walked twice, while Didi Gregorius (now second on the list) went 0 for 4 with a strikeout, while Aaron Judge (now fourth on the list) went 0 for 4 with three strikeouts. Tommy Pham, leading the NL in batting average is now third, while Manny Machado rounds out the top five.

Ronald Accuna is now 483rd out of 601 players listed.

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Monday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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“Sales Hasn’t Changed, We’re Just Leveraging Cool New Tools!”

I read a quote from Graham Hawkins.  I started, “Sales hasn’t changed…..”  Those quotes suck me into reading further and Grahame made the point that sales has changed profoundly.

But I reflected, is this true?

I know that buying and buyers have changed.  It has become increasingly difficult to reach and engage them.  They are incredibly busy doing their own jobs, and often are just trying to survive.  Where sellers were important sources of information to buyers, they now have many, far better channels to get information on new solutions, capabilities, and so forth.  Where sales would introduce buyers to users of their products, buyers can now engage in discussions with users on line.

How buyers buy has changed profoundly.  More B2B decisions are consensus decisions from an ever increasing buying group.  As a result, the buying process has become much more complex and prone to failure.  Herding cats seems to be a much simpler task.

When we talk to buyers about sellers, we hear how little value they perceive from sellers.  Sellers talk about what they want to talk about-their products, not what the buyer wants to talk about.  They don’t understand the buyer or the buyer’s business.  They repeat information that buyers can get more easily/accurately through other sources, they don’t know their products or the problems customers have.

Buyers act on this dissatisfaction, increasingly, by engaging sellers later and later in the buying process.  And if possible, they eliminate sellers totally, favoring e-Procurement.

So buyers and buying has changed.

But has sales and selling changed?

Yes, we have great new technologies that enable us to spew ever increasing amounts of crap in higher volumes and higher velocities.  And when these don’t produce results, our answer is to just double up on the volume and velocity or cast a much wider net to more people.

If we listen to customers (go back a couple of paragraphs) they are telling us that sales people haven’t changed.  They still are pitching their products, they still don’t understand the customer, they still aren’t creating value.

Our customers are virtually shouting, “Sales hasn’t changed…..”

And that’s the problem.

Changing sales isn’t about changing the volume and velocity in which we inflict our product pitches on customers.  It’s changing how we engage customers in ways that are relevant and create value to them now, and tomorrow.

Too many sales people are increasingly unprepared to engage customers in meaningful and impactful ways.  They are doing what they have always done, but producing fewer results.

With few exceptions, sales and selling hasn’t changed.

And that’s the problem.

 

Related Posts:

• The Bar Is Being Raised For Both Buyer And Seller
• Buyer Beware — Seller Be Aware!
• Buyers Aren’t Killing Sales, Sales People Are…
• Buyers Are Self Educating, So Should Sellers!
• Everything Has Changed In Buying/Selling, Except Us!

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So Far, So Good

Ronald Acuna goes two for three with two walks and two doubles to continue an exciting start to his MLB career. He’s not hitting .421 (8 for 19) with five extra base hits and three walks. He living up to his hype and potential, and then some. The Braves beat the Phillies 10-1.

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Perfect Breakup

Paul DeJong singles with two out in the seventh to break up Nick Kingham‘s perfect game. Kingham now has nine strikeouts.

The high Game Score for a pitcher in his MLB debut since the low mound era started in 1969 is Steve Woodard, with a 91. That was on 7/28/1997. Woodard threw eight innings, giving up one hit and one walk, striking out 12, and out-pitched Roger Clemens. Kingham might be through after seven scoreless innings, so it’s unlikely he’ll to Woodard.

The Pirates lead the Cardinals 4-0 at the stretch.

Update: Kingham looks like he’s done, as he’s getting hugs in the dugout. His game score of 84 would be tied for 7th best with Danny Cox in an MLB debut since the start of the 1969 season. Jimmy Jones (90), Pedro Astacio (87), Mark Brownson, Jeff Pico, and Wayne Simpson (85) did better.

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Perfect Debut

Nick Kingham just finished six innings in his major league debut for the Pirates. He retired all 18 Cardinals batters he faced, striking out eight. He threw just 79 pitches, 60 for strikes. I don’t know how long this will last, or how the Pirates will let Kingham stay in the game, but it’s already one of the more impressive debuts.

Kingham is old for a true rookie, seasonal age 26, but he posted good career three-true outcomes and a low ratio of hits/inning in the minors.

There’s no score as the Pirates bat in the sixth.

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Ending the Steak

Denard Span homers off Rick Porcello, who had gone 32 2/3 innings without allowing a home run this season. The Rays try to keep their winning streak alive as they lead the Red Sox 3-0 in the bottom of the fourth inning.

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RR Needs R&R

Robbie Ray just left the Diamondbacks game against the National with an apparent oblique injury. Ray was blowing away batters this season, so this will be a big hole to plug for the Diamondbacks. There is no score in the bottom of the second inning.

Update: Matt Wieters greets reliever T.J. McFarland with a solo home run, and the Nationals lead 1-0.

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Beat the Streak Report

Regular readers of Baseball Musings are aware of the daily Beat the Streak Picks post. Today’s pick, Jean Segura, recorded a hit in his second plate appearance of day, completing 30 days of picks. The Neural Network got 27 of 30 right, when the probabilities it produced indicated an expectation of 22 correct. The probability of getting at least 27 right when the overall probability is 0.727 is 0.02. That means the result falls outside the 95% confidence interval. In other words, the Neural Network started the year with a very lucky streak.

The ninety percent mark is interesting for another reason. A predictor with 90% accuracy would have a realistic chance of producing a 57 game streak. That is, you would have about a 1 in 5 chance of a 57 game streak each time you started a streak.

The NN isn’t there. Small tweaks I’ve tried have not improved things. I suspect for the moment, 75% will be the best we can do. Maybe the luck will continue, but at some point I expect a big regression to the mean.

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Games of the Day

The Athletics and Astros play the rubber game of their AL West series with Trevor Cahill facing Gerrit Cole. Cahill tends to walk a lot of batters, but so far this season he’s okay, issuing just four free passes in 12 innings. Cole is exceeding expectations, with a 1.29 ERA, third best in the majors. He greatly reduced his use of the slider this season. That’s something Zack Greinke did many years ago to prevent injury, and it had the added benefit of keeping the pitch a surprise when a strikeout was required.

The Sunday night game features the Yankees and Angels, with CC Sabathia taking on Tyler Skaggs. The Yankees are trading effectiveness for stamina with Sabathia. He owns a 1.86 ERA, but pitched just 19 1/3 innings in four starts. It’s not clear if pitch count or batters faced is the trigger, but he has yet to face more than 22 batters in a game. I’d say he gets a chance to finish an inning in which the opposing lineup comes around for the third time. Skaggs’s strength this season is keeping the ball in the park, with just one home run allowed in 27 1/3 innings. We’ll see how that works against the Yankees powerhouse lineup.

Enjoy!

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Against Velocity

Gene Collier in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette blames the slow pace of play on the velocity of the ball, out of the arm of the pitcher and off the bat of the hitter. Sean Rodriguez backs up the claim:

“The ball’s comin’ off (the bat) a lot harder now,” Rodriguez explained after authoring two dazzling defensive plays that preserved a 1-0 Pirates victory Thursday. “Velo(city) is up, all three of those things (homers, walks, strikeouts) come hand-in-hand with a lot of velo. It’s hard for guys to control that much velocity. And then naturally if you hit it, it’s gonna go.

“I know people say, well, maybe the ball’s a little more dense. I don’t think so. I’ve been in the league long enough to know the ball isn’t going any further because of the weight of it; it’s that the pitchers are throwing that much harder.”

Fastball velocity is at an all-time high, which is metastasizing the batters’ inability to adjust to breaking pitches. In other words, VEE-lo is slowing the game toward a standstill. There’s a solution, of course, and it’s not to lower the mound again. Move the pitching rubber back a little. Two feet ought to do it.

Collier’s suggestion is a good one, and unlike him I don’t think it’s dead on arrival. The mound was much closer in the early days of the game, and unlike the distance between the bases, I don’t think it’s particularly sacrosanct. Baseball might even put in a rule of thumb about moving the rubber back a foot whenever balls in play fall below a particular level.

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.331 — Jean Segura batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.318 — Kevin Pillar batting against Martin Perez.
0.318 — Dee Gordon batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.307 — Michael Brantley batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.303 — Robinson Cano batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.301 — Nelson Cruz batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.301 — Steve Pearce batting against Martin Perez.
0.296 — Mitch Haniger batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.296 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Martin Perez.
0.292 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.290 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.287 — Luke Maile batting against Martin Perez.
0.287 — Justin Smoak batting against Martin Perez.
0.285 — Jose Ramirez batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.285 — Manny Machado batting against Daniel Norris.
0.283 — Freddie Freeman batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.283 — Odubel Herrera batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.283 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.283 — Matt Kemp batting against Ty Blach.
0.283 — Ryon Healy batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.283 — Tyler Naquin batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.282 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Martin Perez.
0.282 — J.D. Martinez batting against Matt Andriese.
0.282 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.281 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Martin Perez.
0.281 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.281 — Ender Inciarte batting against Vincent Velasquez.

Batters are 36 for 89, a .404 BA against Martin Perez this season. I suspect players on the Blue Jays disabled list could get a hit against him. In the past, Perez compensated for the high BA against him by not allowing much power, but this year, 10 of the 36 hits went for extra bases.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.331, 0.745 — Jean Segura batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.292, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.318, 0.730 — Dee Gordon batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.307, 0.717 — Michael Brantley batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.303, 0.707 — Robinson Cano batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.318, 0.705 — Kevin Pillar batting against Martin Perez.
0.283, 0.702 — Odubel Herrera batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.282, 0.701 — J.D. Martinez batting against Matt Andriese.
0.290, 0.701 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.285, 0.701 — Jose Ramirez batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.301, 0.700 — Nelson Cruz batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.285, 0.700 — Manny Machado batting against Daniel Norris.
0.274, 0.700 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.273, 0.697 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Matt Andriese.
0.282, 0.696 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.278, 0.695 — Albert Almora batting against Zach Davies.
0.281, 0.695 — Ender Inciarte batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.256, 0.694 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Caleb Smith.
0.281, 0.693 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.283, 0.693 — Matt Kemp batting against Ty Blach.
0.283, 0.693 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.283, 0.693 — Freddie Freeman batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.271, 0.692 — Didi Gregorius batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.296, 0.692 — Mitch Haniger batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.262, 0.691 — Starlin Castro batting against Chad Bettis.

Tomlin’s high hit average allowed (he walks few batters) wins out over Altuve’s ability to accumulate hits today. Segura is the unanimous first pick with Dee Gordon, the consensus second pick. Look for the Seattle table setters to do well today.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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Best Batter Today

There was a bug in the display of the batter information. I was trying to save processor time on my server by caching the results of the calculation, but it wasn’t working correctly. I fixed the bug, but some prior days may be off.

Mike Trout tops the list of best batters today, with Didi Gregorius second and Aaron Judge third. Tommy Pham and Jose Altuve round out the top five. The Yankees Angels series proved to be quite the showcase of talent!

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Sunday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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Yard Work

I spent most of the day taking care of my lawn. This usually gets done in late March or early April, but the temperatures have been so cold it made no sense to put down fertilizer yet. The trees are just blooming now, and with rain overnight, it was the perfect time to aerate the lawn, and other fun stuff.

Of course, Yard Work was Karl Ravech’s catch phrase for home runs in highlights back in my days on baseball tonight. Sitting down to review today’s games, I noticed the home runs in one were hit by W. Ramos and D. Span, and thought for a moment that it was a Nationals game. The former Washington teammates are now hitting for the Rays, who are up on Boston 9-5 in the top of the ninth. Carlos Gomez also homered for the Rays, while the Red Sox hit one.

The Nationals continue to fall on hard times as they once again lose to the Diamondbacks by one run. They loaded the bases with two out in the bottom of the tenth, but Michael Taylor grounded into a force to end the game. Nick Ahmed score the go-ahead run in the top of the tenth on a bases loaded walk. The Nats are now five games under .500 as the injuries to key stars have sapped their offense. The teams hit a total of four home runs, David Peralta going deep twice. He’s one of three players to hit two home runs in a game so far today.

So far, there are 18 home runs in the six completed games. With two double headers, we might see a lot more by the end of Saturday.

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Games of the Day

The Rays send rookie Yonny Chirinos against the Red Sox and former Rays pitcher David Price. Chirinos is off to a very nice start despite not winning a game. He’s strikeout out three times as many as he walks, and keeping his home runs allowed reasonable. That all helped him to a 2.92 ERA. Price has now faced his former team 11 times, holding a 4-3 record and 3.09 ERA. He has not allowed a run to the Rays in his last three appearances.

The Dodgers and Giants continue their series with Walker Buehler facing Chris Stratton in game one of their double header. Last season, Buehler walked eight and struck out 12 with an ERA of 7.71. This season, he’s trying to be effectively wild, with three walks and five K in five innings, and no runs allowed. He’s certainly living up to his name. Stratton solidified his place in the Giants rotation with a 2.32 ERA in five starts. He has yet to allow a home run. Only Rick Porcello threw more innings this season with no homers allowed.

The Braves and Phillies are right in the thick of the NL East race as Mike Foltynewicz takes on Nick Pivetta. Foltynewicz makes his third start of the season against the Phillies, and so far he’s pitched to a 2.45 ERA against them. That’s thanks to 15 K in 11 innings. Pivetta holds opponents to a .238/.278/.307 slash line this season. He’s allowed a .316 BA with runners in scoring position, but the situation doesn’t come up enough to really hurt his ERA.

Enjoy!

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.310 — Michael Brantley batting against Mike Leake.
0.305 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.293 — Jose Ramirez batting against Mike Leake.
0.288 — Tyler Naquin batting against Mike Leake.
0.279 — Carlos Correa batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.279 — Freddie Freeman batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.276 — Ender Inciarte batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.276 — Starlin Castro batting against German Marquez.
0.275 — Francisco Lindor batting against Mike Leake.
0.275 — Jed Lowrie batting against Lance McCullers.
0.274 — Bradley Zimmer batting against Mike Leake.
0.273 — Kevin Pillar batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.273 — Jose Abreu batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.270 — Ozzie Albies batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.268 — J.T. Realmuto batting against German Marquez.
0.268 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.268 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jose Quintana.
0.267 — Nomar Mazara batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.267 — Odubel Herrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.267 — Nick Markakis batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.267 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Mike Leake.
0.266 — Nick Castellanos batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.264 — Yonder Alonso batting against Mike Leake.
0.264 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.262 — Steve Pearce batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.262 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Daniel Mengden.

Mike Leake is so hittable, the Indians pitchers are predicted to do well against him.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.305, 0.740 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.310, 0.717 — Michael Brantley batting against Mike Leake.
0.293, 0.707 — Jose Ramirez batting against Mike Leake.
0.276, 0.699 — Starlin Castro batting against German Marquez.
0.267, 0.696 — Odubel Herrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.276, 0.695 — Ender Inciarte batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.273, 0.694 — Jose Abreu batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.255, 0.693 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Caleb Smith.
0.279, 0.693 — Carlos Correa batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.279, 0.693 — Freddie Freeman batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.252, 0.692 — Jean Segura batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.256, 0.690 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Caleb Smith.
0.268, 0.688 — J.T. Realmuto batting against German Marquez.
0.275, 0.687 — Jed Lowrie batting against Lance McCullers.
0.288, 0.685 — Tyler Naquin batting against Mike Leake.
0.266, 0.685 — Nick Castellanos batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.268, 0.683 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.250, 0.682 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yonny Chirinos.
0.273, 0.682 — Kevin Pillar batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.268, 0.681 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jose Quintana.
0.255, 0.681 — Jose Abreu batting against Trevor Oaks.
0.261, 0.680 — Michael Moustakas batting against Ian Clarkin.
0.246, 0.680 — Howie Kendrick batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.252, 0.680 — Nolan Arenado batting against Caleb Smith.
0.244, 0.679 — Dee Gordon batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.260, 0.679 — David Peralta batting against Jeremy Hellickson.

The NN gives Altuve a huge win. His three-year (2016-2018) hit average stands at .304. No one in the top 25 is close to him. Charlie Blackmon is at .288, but with a lower 2016 hit average and he’s facing a better pitcher. Alutve and Brantley are tied for the consensus first pick, with Jose Ramirez behind them.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge and Mike Trout went head-to-head Friday night, Judge going 0 for 5 with four strikeouts, while Trout went 1 for 4 with a single and two K. That left Judge at the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings for today, the two players separated by just 0.24 points. Tommy Pham, Didi Gregorius, and Jose Ramirez continue to fill out the rest of the top five. Gregorius missed the cycle by a triple last night, and his tenth inning home run won the game for the Yankees.

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Saturday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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Optimal Places to Place a Bathroom

Content originally published and Shared from http://perfectbath.com

The battle for the bathroom is a common occurrence across homes throughout the world. Even people primarily living alone may run into this issue when hosting guests. When the issue about adding another bathroom to the house comes up, space and cost are usually the biggest concerns; but to the surprise of many, space isn’t as big of an issue as originally perceived.

A 3 by 5-foot area is usually all that is required to fit a toilet and sink. If you have a couple more feet to spare, a 5 by 5 can accommodate a small walk-in shower as well. Some common advantages of an additional bathroom can be convenience, adding value to your home, and the additional privacy of not having guests in your private bath.

Let’s look at where you can add a bathroom in the home – and where they are needed most.

Close to Living and Recreational Spaces

In a lot of homes, the placement of the bathroom is usually located closer to the bedrooms or in a central location between both living and sleeping spaces. The idea of having a bathroom close to the den or living room can be very attractive. And for the ultimate man cave, a toilet close by is an absolute necessity. It’s not uncommon to find a coat closet, staircase or hallway in or adjacent to a living space, as they can be the perfect spaces to install a half bath.

When hosting guests, it can be cumbersome to explain directions to the bathroom multiple times, especially if your home is larger or of unique design. Wouldn’t it be easier to just leave the door to your new bathroom open when unoccupied, so everyone can plainly see and take note when the urge to go arises?

Between Two Bedrooms

A convenient and efficient additional bathroom can be used to link two bedrooms together. This arrangement is commonly called a Jack and Jill style bathroom. This can be great for homes with children. Some well-designed Jack and Jill setups allow the use of private areas like the shower and toilet separate from the sink, counter and vanity area.

This style can be an efficient use of your space. Some standard bathrooms can even be converted in some home layouts. You can also save cash by incorporating this design compared to two separate bathrooms: why build and plumb another bathroom when you can frame in a door for less?

Split Your Pre-Existing Bathroom

This may seem like strange advice, but spend some time thinking about the size of your bathroom. Many homeowners possess bathrooms that can be much larger than necessary. Most of the plumbing has already been ran, allowing you to tap into water and drain pipes without making long and costly runs of pipe; this can be one of the major advantages of splitting your already existing bathroom. Though it sounds silly at first, making use of an over-sized bathroom by splitting it can give you the extra bathroom you need at a lower cost.

An additional bathroom is probably one of the most wished-for additions in smaller and older homes. Even in small homes, where it may seem unlikely to have the space, room can be found to make this addition. These optimal places for a new bathroom can potentially save time, frustration and money, depending on your exact configuration.

 

Contributed by: Perfectbath.com experts in bathroom design and bathroom fixtures.

The post Optimal Places to Place a Bathroom appeared first on Perfect Bath Canada.

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Games of the Day

The Diamondbacks are exceeding expectations as they travel to Washington to play the disappointing Nationals. Zack Godley takes on Baseball Jesus, otherwise know as Stephen Strasburg. Godley throws two fastballs, a sinker and a cutter, which strikes me as an usual mix. That results in both a high strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate. Strasburg is now 32-10 since the start of the 2016 season. This is the last year of his prime, and he’s certainly making the most of those seasons.

Sean Manaea leads the Athletics into Houston to face Dallas Keuchel. Manaea is coming off his no-hitter against the Red Sox, and faces another AL powerhouse offense. He allowed just 16 hits in his 27 2/3 innings before his no-hitter. The BABIP against him is a ridiculous .135, likely due to only allowing 13% of balls in play against him to go as line drives. Opponents are just 4 for 27 against Keuchel with runners in scoring position this year.

Enjoy!

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.316 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Tillman.
0.309 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Clayton Richard.
0.300 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Chris Tillman.
0.293 — Scooter Gennett batting against Phil Hughes.
0.292 — Albert Almora batting against Brent Suter.
0.291 — Javier Baez batting against Brent Suter.
0.289 — Jeimer Candelario batting against Chris Tillman.
0.289 — Manny Machado batting against Michael Fiers.
0.285 — Starlin Castro batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.285 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.284 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jose Urena.
0.282 — Juan Lagares batting against Clayton Richard.
0.281 — Jose Peraza batting against Phil Hughes.
0.280 — Victor Martinez batting against Chris Tillman.
0.280 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jose Urena.
0.279 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jose Urena.
0.279 — Wilmer Flores batting against Clayton Richard.
0.279 — Leonys Martin batting against Chris Tillman.
0.278 — Didi Gregorius batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.278 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.278 — Trey Mancini batting against Michael Fiers.
0.277 — Adam Jones batting against Michael Fiers.
0.276 — Willson Contreras batting against Brent Suter.
0.275 — Joey Votto batting against Phil Hughes.
0.275 — Kris Bryant batting against Brent Suter.

As the 2018 season statistics count more each day, Nick Castellanos moves up. It also doesn’t hurt that Chris Tillman allowed 30 hits in 17 1/3 innings this season.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.316, 0.715 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Tillman.
0.284, 0.713 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jose Urena.
0.309, 0.712 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Clayton Richard.
0.246, 0.711 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.285, 0.705 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.293, 0.704 — Scooter Gennett batting against Phil Hughes.
0.285, 0.704 — Starlin Castro batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.279, 0.702 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jose Urena.
0.292, 0.701 — Albert Almora batting against Brent Suter.
0.280, 0.698 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jose Urena.
0.289, 0.695 — Manny Machado batting against Michael Fiers.
0.291, 0.695 — Javier Baez batting against Brent Suter.
0.278, 0.694 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.300, 0.693 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Chris Tillman.
0.278, 0.693 — Didi Gregorius batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.278, 0.691 — Trey Mancini batting against Michael Fiers.
0.269, 0.691 — Odubel Herrera batting against Julio Teheran.
0.264, 0.688 — Jose Abreu batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.277, 0.685 — Adam Jones batting against Michael Fiers.
0.281, 0.685 — Jose Peraza batting against Phil Hughes.
0.257, 0.681 — Jose Ramirez batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.267, 0.680 — Jed Lowrie batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.275, 0.680 — Joey Votto batting against Phil Hughes.
0.250, 0.679 — Ender Inciarte batting against Aaron Nola.
0.258, 0.678 — Thomas Pham batting against Steven Brault.

Castellanos would be the unanimous first choice today. It seems only Sean Manaea with his 16 hits allowed in 36 2/3 innings can knock Jose Altuve off the top spot! Asbrubal Cabrera is the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Tommy Pham moves ahead of Didi Gregorius for third place, with Mike Trout remaining in second and Jose Ramirez fifth.

It’s nice to see that the big three of this prime generation, Trout, Manny Machado, and Bryce Harper are all in the top 11.

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