Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.314 — Mallex Smith batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.312 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.312 — Jose Altuve batting against Sonny Gray.
0.307 — Joey Wendle batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.303 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.296 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.296 — C.J. Cron batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.289 — Denard Span batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.288 — Jesus Sucre batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.284 — Daniel Robertson batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.280 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.277 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.276 — Matt Kemp batting against Zack Greinke.
0.275 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.273 — Carlos Correa batting against Sonny Gray.
0.271 — Johnny D Field batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.270 — Jose Peraza batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.270 — Odubel Herrera batting against Daniel Straily.
0.269 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jason Hammel.
0.268 — Mookie Betts batting against Jason Hammel.
0.268 — Albert Almora batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.267 — Javier Baez batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.266 — Cody Bellinger batting against Zack Greinke.
0.266 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Brandon Finnegan.
0.266 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jeff Samardzija.

It a great day to pick a Rays player. Zimmermann is allowing a high BA with few walks, although most of that happened on the road.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.312, 0.747 — Jose Altuve batting against Sonny Gray.
0.312, 0.718 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.314, 0.712 — Mallex Smith batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.280, 0.708 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.307, 0.700 — Joey Wendle batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.303, 0.698 — Matt M Duffy batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.277, 0.696 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.253, 0.692 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jon Lester.
0.270, 0.691 — Odubel Herrera batting against Daniel Straily.
0.275, 0.691 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.262, 0.691 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jason Hammel.
0.269, 0.689 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jason Hammel.
0.296, 0.689 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.296, 0.688 — C.J. Cron batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.253, 0.688 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jon Lester.
0.265, 0.687 — Michael Brantley batting against Cole Hamels.
0.268, 0.687 — Mookie Betts batting against Jason Hammel.
0.276, 0.685 — Matt Kemp batting against Zack Greinke.
0.265, 0.685 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.266, 0.685 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.268, 0.685 — Albert Almora batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.273, 0.684 — Carlos Correa batting against Sonny Gray.
0.289, 0.684 — Denard Span batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.270, 0.682 — Jose Peraza batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.259, 0.680 — David Peralta batting against Ross Stripling.

Jose Altuve pops to the top against Sonny Gray. That’s a tough choice, as Gray is pitching poorly this season, but longer term he’s pretty good. Altuve has seen Gray a lot, 11 for 30 against him for their careers. Smith and Ramos are tied for consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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