Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.316 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Tillman.
0.309 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Clayton Richard.
0.300 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Chris Tillman.
0.293 — Scooter Gennett batting against Phil Hughes.
0.292 — Albert Almora batting against Brent Suter.
0.291 — Javier Baez batting against Brent Suter.
0.289 — Jeimer Candelario batting against Chris Tillman.
0.289 — Manny Machado batting against Michael Fiers.
0.285 — Starlin Castro batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.285 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.284 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jose Urena.
0.282 — Juan Lagares batting against Clayton Richard.
0.281 — Jose Peraza batting against Phil Hughes.
0.280 — Victor Martinez batting against Chris Tillman.
0.280 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jose Urena.
0.279 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jose Urena.
0.279 — Wilmer Flores batting against Clayton Richard.
0.279 — Leonys Martin batting against Chris Tillman.
0.278 — Didi Gregorius batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.278 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.278 — Trey Mancini batting against Michael Fiers.
0.277 — Adam Jones batting against Michael Fiers.
0.276 — Willson Contreras batting against Brent Suter.
0.275 — Joey Votto batting against Phil Hughes.
0.275 — Kris Bryant batting against Brent Suter.

As the 2018 season statistics count more each day, Nick Castellanos moves up. It also doesn’t hurt that Chris Tillman allowed 30 hits in 17 1/3 innings this season.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.316, 0.715 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Tillman.
0.284, 0.713 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jose Urena.
0.309, 0.712 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Clayton Richard.
0.246, 0.711 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.285, 0.705 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.293, 0.704 — Scooter Gennett batting against Phil Hughes.
0.285, 0.704 — Starlin Castro batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.279, 0.702 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jose Urena.
0.292, 0.701 — Albert Almora batting against Brent Suter.
0.280, 0.698 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jose Urena.
0.289, 0.695 — Manny Machado batting against Michael Fiers.
0.291, 0.695 — Javier Baez batting against Brent Suter.
0.278, 0.694 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.300, 0.693 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Chris Tillman.
0.278, 0.693 — Didi Gregorius batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.278, 0.691 — Trey Mancini batting against Michael Fiers.
0.269, 0.691 — Odubel Herrera batting against Julio Teheran.
0.264, 0.688 — Jose Abreu batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.277, 0.685 — Adam Jones batting against Michael Fiers.
0.281, 0.685 — Jose Peraza batting against Phil Hughes.
0.257, 0.681 — Jose Ramirez batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.267, 0.680 — Jed Lowrie batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.275, 0.680 — Joey Votto batting against Phil Hughes.
0.250, 0.679 — Ender Inciarte batting against Aaron Nola.
0.258, 0.678 — Thomas Pham batting against Steven Brault.

Castellanos would be the unanimous first choice today. It seems only Sean Manaea with his 16 hits allowed in 36 2/3 innings can knock Jose Altuve off the top spot! Asbrubal Cabrera is the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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