Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.317 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.313 — Mookie Betts batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.303 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.298 — Jose Altuve batting against James Shields.
0.294 — Odubel Herrera batting against Ivan Nova.
0.290 — Rafael Devers batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.289 — Hanley Ramirez batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.288 — Michael Moustakas batting against Daniel Norris.
0.286 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ben Lively.
0.281 — Christian Vazquez batting against Kendall Graveman.

The Atheltics should have grave concerns about winning their game against the Red Sox Friday night. Boston hitters make up six of the top ten against Graveman. He allowed 28 hits in 17 1/3 innings so far this season, and Boston just finished a pounding of the Angels.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.298, 0.735 — Jose Altuve batting against James Shields.
0.317, 0.723 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.303, 0.714 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.313, 0.711 — Mookie Betts batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.294, 0.705 — Odubel Herrera batting against Ivan Nova.
0.266, 0.702 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.288, 0.702 — Michael Moustakas batting against Daniel Norris.
0.268, 0.700 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.286, 0.689 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ben Lively.
0.269, 0.688 — David Peralta batting against Tyson Ross.

Altuve’s three-season .306 hit average wins the day, but it does look like a good day to double down with Red Sox players. J.D. Martinez is the consensus first pick, with Betts and Nunez tied for second.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2qMtDcq