Paying for Performance

Eno Sarris talks to a number of players about swinging hard, launch angles, attack angles, all to figure out if lifting the ball leads to more strikeouts. (Subscription required.) Jed Lowrie provides the litteral money quote, however:

“This is all a result of the way players are compensated, particularly in arbitration,” he told me before a game. “You get paid for home runs and strikeouts, particularly in arbitration. Pitchers are trying to strike everyone out, and hitters are trying to hit balls out, so you get more swings and misses. It’s taught more in the minor leagues, they all have the trackers down there so they know their launch angles. At the end of the day, it all boils down to compensation, because if people are paid for strikeouts and homers, that’s what they are going to do, because that’s what you’ve identified as valuable.”

Teams have determined home runs and strikeouts are the most effective ways to win games, so they pay for those.

As I’ve noted before, I believe that if MLB wants faster games, they should pay their athletes for playing quickly. They may want to start paying them for putting the ball in play:

Hits, Walks, and Strikeouts per 100 Plate Appearances, through April.
2018 season through April 24.

Season	Plate App	Hits	Walks	Strikeouts	Hit Pct	Walk Pct	Str Pct
2018	25897	5541	2379	5946	21.40	9.19	22.96
2017	28022	6185	2426	6047	22.07	8.66	21.58
2016	26755	5951	2311	5710	22.24	8.64	21.34
2015	24708	5536	1967	4961	22.41	7.96	20.08
2014	31017	6903	2579	6446	22.26	8.31	20.78
2013	29805	6694	2442	6012	22.46	8.19	20.17
2012	25577	5702	2107	4940	22.29	8.24	19.31
2011	30384	6780	2606	5639	22.31	8.58	18.56
2010	26606	5998	2510	4885	22.54	9.43	18.36
2009	25064	5782	2458	4425	23.07	9.81	17.65
2008	32423	7372	3034	5339	22.74	9.36	16.47
2007	28759	6526	2609	4888	22.69	9.07	17.00
2006	28157	6583	2540	4646	23.38	9.02	16.50
2005	26895	6250	2305	4388	23.24	8.57	16.32
2004	26034	6159	2356	4198	23.66	9.05	16.13
2003	31291	7219	2833	5228	23.07	9.05	16.71
2002	29428	6707	2643	4916	22.79	8.98	16.71
2001	28342	6528	2495	5008	23.03	8.80	17.67
2000	28762	6774	2854	4712	23.55	9.92	16.38
1999	25937	6062	2551	4272	23.37	9.84	16.47
1998	30674	7194	2887	5136	23.45	9.41	16.74
1997	27065	6285	2662	4362	23.22	9.84	16.12
1996	28394	6719	2810	4776	23.66	9.90	16.82
1995	5175	1175	527	825	22.71	10.18	15.94
1994	24978	5871	2384	4014	23.50	9.54	16.07
1993	23512	5369	2137	3518	22.84	9.09	14.96
1992	21130	4656	1887	3226	22.04	8.93	15.27
1991	19001	4161	1735	2796	21.90	9.13	14.72
1990	18717	4221	1653	2761	22.55	8.83	14.75
1989	23210	5157	2016	3320	22.22	8.69	14.30
1988	21165	4670	1828	3194	22.06	8.64	15.09
1987	20897	4755	1959	3347	22.75	9.37	16.02
1986	19320	4239	1821	3033	21.94	9.43	15.70
1985	18965	4203	1667	2571	22.16	8.79	13.56
1984	21544	4911	1970	2814	22.80	9.14	13.06
1983	19215	4431	1642	2529	23.06	8.55	13.16
1982	19913	4573	1798	2455	22.96	9.03	12.33
1981	16799	3681	1408	2136	21.91	8.38	12.72
1980	17427	3963	1547	2137	22.74	8.88	12.26
1979	20488	4719	1926	2534	23.03	9.40	12.37
1978	20032	4520	1814	2462	22.56	9.06	12.29
1977	18316	4289	1600	2373	23.42	8.74	12.96
1976	14619	3331	1322	1870	22.79	9.04	12.79
1975	17043	3746	1578	2185	21.98	9.26	12.82
1974	19261	4465	1742	2479	23.18	9.04	12.87

As noted last night, there are now more strikeouts than hits, and nearly a third of plate appearances end without a ball in play. Note that walks aren’t really the problem, as they are in line with historical norms. So how should players be compensated to put the ball in play, and pitchers allow them to put the ball in play, so we get more batting/fielding action?

One way would be to devalue home runs. I suggested in the past randomly assigning a value of 1 to 4 bases for a home run at the start of every game. Even reducing a ball hit out of the park to a ground rule double might encourage more balls up the gaps, since they could score a man from first.

Doing the same for strikeouts is tougher. One way would be to require an actual swing and a miss for a strikeout. When a called third strike is thrown, the batter can no longer draw a walk. The pitcher keeps pitching until the batter swings and misses, or puts the ball in play fair. There might need to be a rule that three balls in the zone after than with no swing is a K, but it would reset on a foul. The idea would be to force the pitcher into the strike zone late.

Players are compensated for home runs and strikeouts for good reasons. If we want that to change, we need to provide a way to make HR and Ks less valuable.

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2HtTyA9