Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.318 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.302 — Trey Mancini batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.297 — Manny Machado batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.293 — David Peralta batting against Ty Blach.
0.292 — Dansby Swanson batting against Matt Harvey.
0.291 — Ozzie Albies batting against Matt Harvey.
0.289 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.288 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.286 — Carlos Correa batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.286 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Gonzales.

Both programs look at data since the start of the 2016 season for the three-year averages. Gonzales in that time allowed a .347/.386/.542 slash line. He gives up lots of hits without walking many batters. Three year numbers are regressed up to 600 PA, so the number that are used in the above calculation could be much worse. Altuve should be licking his chops.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.318, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.302, 0.713 — Trey Mancini batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.293, 0.707 — David Peralta batting against Ty Blach.
0.289, 0.701 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.297, 0.699 — Manny Machado batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.286, 0.698 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.288, 0.695 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.279, 0.693 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Matt Wisler.
0.286, 0.691 — Carlos Correa batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.285, 0.689 — Adam Jones batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

There’s very good agreement today between the two systems. Altuve and Mancini are the unanimous 1-2 picks, but notice Altuve’s probability of a hit is much higher.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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