Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — Dee Gordon batting against Martin Perez.
0.333 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez.
0.318 — Robinson Cano batting against Martin Perez.
0.302 — Mitch Haniger batting against Martin Perez.
0.301 — Nelson Cruz batting against Martin Perez.
0.292 — Ichiro Suzuki batting against Martin Perez.
0.290 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Martin Perez.
0.287 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.287 — Mallex Smith batting against Phil Hughes.
0.286 — Guillermo Heredia batting against Martin Perez.

Yes, Martin Perez is that bad. In 2018, opponents own a .453/.507/.688 slash line against him. That said, Gordon and Segura are usually good picks on a given day.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.338, 0.743 — Dee Gordon batting against Martin Perez.
0.333, 0.739 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez.
0.318, 0.715 — Robinson Cano batting against Martin Perez.
0.253, 0.712 — Jose Altuve batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.287, 0.706 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.273, 0.703 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jose Quintana.
0.269, 0.703 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jose Quintana.
0.281, 0.699 — J.D. Martinez batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.276, 0.699 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.269, 0.693 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jose Quintana.

The NN understands short term failure and success a bit better than the Log5 method, and brings in hitters on teams other than the Mariners. Both system agree, however, that it’s a Dee Gordon, Jean Segura double down day.

I do find it interesting that the Yankees are calling up Gleyber Torres when Ronald Torreyes has worked his way into the top ten likely hit candidates a couple of days in a row. Torreyes has an eight game hit streak during which he’s hitting .483.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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