Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.297 — Nick Castellanos batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287 — David Peralta batting against Ben Lively.
0.283 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.281 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Ivan Nova.
0.280 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.278 — Ender Inciarte batting against Homer Bailey.
0.273 — Manny Machado batting against Chris Archer.
0.272 — A.J. Pollock batting against Ben Lively.
0.271 — Jeimer Candelario batting against Ivan Nova.
0.270 — Corey Dickerson batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.270 — Scooter Gennett batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.270 — Yadier Molina batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.268 — Jose Martinez batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.268 — Chris Owings batting against Ben Lively.
0.268 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Homer Bailey.
0.267 — Freddie Freeman batting against Homer Bailey.
0.264 — Victor Martinez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.264 — Nick Markakis batting against Homer Bailey.
0.263 — Thomas Pham batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.262 — Dansby Swanson batting against Homer Bailey.
0.262 — Trey Mancini batting against Chris Archer.
0.262 — Ozzie Albies batting against Homer Bailey.
0.262 — Starling Marte batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.261 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Ben Lively.
0.261 — Paul DeJong batting against Noah Syndergaard.

Castellanos owns a nice career arc. He made it to the majors at seasonal age 21, a good sign that a batter will be good. His batting stats were meh for a couple of seasons, then at age 24 started developing power. This year he added a much high BA and more walks for a .388 OBP and a .500 slugging percentage. In general, most of this OBP comes from hits, which makes him a great candidate for hit streaks.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.283, 0.708 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.297, 0.707 — Nick Castellanos batting against Ivan Nova.
0.280, 0.700 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.278, 0.700 — Ender Inciarte batting against Homer Bailey.
0.287, 0.695 — David Peralta batting against Ben Lively.
0.270, 0.687 — Yadier Molina batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.281, 0.685 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Ivan Nova.
0.270, 0.684 — Scooter Gennett batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.257, 0.684 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Marco Estrada.
0.243, 0.682 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.268, 0.681 — Jose Martinez batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.273, 0.681 — Manny Machado batting against Chris Archer.
0.253, 0.681 — Jose Ramirez batting against James Paxton.
0.267, 0.681 — Freddie Freeman batting against Homer Bailey.
0.270, 0.681 — Corey Dickerson batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.268, 0.679 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Homer Bailey.
0.259, 0.678 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marco Estrada.
0.262, 0.677 — Trey Mancini batting against Chris Archer.
0.262, 0.675 — Starling Marte batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.238, 0.674 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.260, 0.673 — Mookie Betts batting against Marco Estrada.
0.261, 0.673 — Paul DeJong batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.257, 0.672 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.263, 0.672 — Thomas Pham batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.254, 0.671 — Michael Brantley batting against James Paxton.
0.235, 0.671 — Jose Abreu batting against Jakob Junis.

This might be the first time a part-time player came out at the top of the list. Torreyes, like Castellanos, has an OBP that is mostly made up of hits. He’s batting .417 with a .432 OBP at the moment, and given the light schedule today, be bubbled to the top of the list.

Note that probabilities are very low today. Castellanos is the consensus first pick. Given that the Yankees are playing a day game after a night game, Torreyes may get a start to rest someone.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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