Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.317 — Dee Gordon batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.316 — Jean Segura batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.302 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.298 — Robinson Cano batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.296 — Jed Lowrie batting against Matt Moore.
0.292 — Michael Brantley batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.291 — Mitch Haniger batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.285 — Nelson Cruz batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.280 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.278 — Jose Abreu batting against Mike Leake.

Once again, Log5 likes the Mariners against a pitcher with a high hit average allowed this season. Gonzalez allowed just six walks in 66 batters faced, but 24 hits for a .400 BA and a .364 hit average. Regression reduces that to .266, but that’s high in season with where position players are posting a .217 hit average.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.302, 0.739 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.317, 0.729 — Dee Gordon batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.316, 0.727 — Jean Segura batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.274, 0.711 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.296, 0.702 — Jed Lowrie batting against Matt Moore.
0.298, 0.699 — Robinson Cano batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.268, 0.699 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.292, 0.699 — Michael Brantley batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.270, 0.697 — Nolan Arenado batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.280, 0.697 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kevin Gausman.

The Rockies get pulled into this list, and Jose Altuve jumps to the top. Dee Gordon remains the consensus first pick. Altuve is 6 for 15 against Skaggs in his career.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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