Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.305 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.301 — Albert Almora batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.300 — Jose Abreu batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.299 — Mallex Smith batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.299 — Starling Marte batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.294 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.290 — Javier Baez batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.290 — Wilson Ramos batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.287 — Michael Moustakas batting against Zach Davies.
0.287 — Avisail Garcia batting against Marco Gonzales.

Dickerson is a good example of someone who should be good at accumulating hit streaks. For his career, he owns a relatively high BA of .281, but a relatively low OBP of .326. In the days before OBP was commonly known as a better measure of batter skill, Dickerson would have been feted as an excellent hitter. While there is nothing wrong with a .326 OBP, it certainly doesn’t place him among the elite.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.269, 0.721 — Jose Altuve batting against Shohei Ohtani.
0.300, 0.713 — Jose Abreu batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.301, 0.710 — Albert Almora batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.305, 0.707 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.299, 0.704 — Starling Marte batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.275, 0.703 — Jean Segura batting against Chris Volstad.
0.260, 0.699 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Eric Lauer.
0.287, 0.699 — Avisail Garcia batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.273, 0.699 — Dee Gordon batting against Chris Volstad.
0.287, 0.699 — Michael Moustakas batting against Zach Davies.

Blackmon faces the league average pitcher today, as Eric Lauer makes his MLB debut for the Padres. Altuve’s .306 hit average over the 2016-2018 stretch keeps pushing him to the top. Jose Abreu is the consensus first choice.

Brian Dozier, who currently owns the longest hit streak in the majors, comes in with a probability of getting a hit at .646. Note that his .307 BA during the streak is not outrageous, and he walks a lot, with a .373 OBP. He had a game where he picked up one hit and walked four times! In general, he gets a hit and that’s it, but if you had been picking Dozier the last two weeks you’d be doing just fine.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2JosNcN