Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.310 — Michael Brantley batting against Mike Leake.
0.305 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.293 — Jose Ramirez batting against Mike Leake.
0.288 — Tyler Naquin batting against Mike Leake.
0.279 — Carlos Correa batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.279 — Freddie Freeman batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.276 — Ender Inciarte batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.276 — Starlin Castro batting against German Marquez.
0.275 — Francisco Lindor batting against Mike Leake.
0.275 — Jed Lowrie batting against Lance McCullers.
0.274 — Bradley Zimmer batting against Mike Leake.
0.273 — Kevin Pillar batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.273 — Jose Abreu batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.270 — Ozzie Albies batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.268 — J.T. Realmuto batting against German Marquez.
0.268 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.268 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jose Quintana.
0.267 — Nomar Mazara batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.267 — Odubel Herrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.267 — Nick Markakis batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.267 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Mike Leake.
0.266 — Nick Castellanos batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.264 — Yonder Alonso batting against Mike Leake.
0.264 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.262 — Steve Pearce batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.262 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Daniel Mengden.

Mike Leake is so hittable, the Indians pitchers are predicted to do well against him.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.305, 0.740 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.310, 0.717 — Michael Brantley batting against Mike Leake.
0.293, 0.707 — Jose Ramirez batting against Mike Leake.
0.276, 0.699 — Starlin Castro batting against German Marquez.
0.267, 0.696 — Odubel Herrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.276, 0.695 — Ender Inciarte batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.273, 0.694 — Jose Abreu batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.255, 0.693 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Caleb Smith.
0.279, 0.693 — Carlos Correa batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.279, 0.693 — Freddie Freeman batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.252, 0.692 — Jean Segura batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.256, 0.690 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Caleb Smith.
0.268, 0.688 — J.T. Realmuto batting against German Marquez.
0.275, 0.687 — Jed Lowrie batting against Lance McCullers.
0.288, 0.685 — Tyler Naquin batting against Mike Leake.
0.266, 0.685 — Nick Castellanos batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.268, 0.683 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.250, 0.682 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yonny Chirinos.
0.273, 0.682 — Kevin Pillar batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.268, 0.681 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jose Quintana.
0.255, 0.681 — Jose Abreu batting against Trevor Oaks.
0.261, 0.680 — Michael Moustakas batting against Ian Clarkin.
0.246, 0.680 — Howie Kendrick batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.252, 0.680 — Nolan Arenado batting against Caleb Smith.
0.244, 0.679 — Dee Gordon batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.260, 0.679 — David Peralta batting against Jeremy Hellickson.

The NN gives Altuve a huge win. His three-year (2016-2018) hit average stands at .304. No one in the top 25 is close to him. Charlie Blackmon is at .288, but with a lower 2016 hit average and he’s facing a better pitcher. Alutve and Brantley are tied for the consensus first pick, with Jose Ramirez behind them.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2r6beHw