Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.290 — Mallex Smith batting against Matt Moore.
0.286 — Jed Lowrie batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.280 — Dee Gordon batting against Lance McCullers.
0.279 — Jean Segura batting against Lance McCullers.
0.276 — Kris Bryant batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.274 — Albert Almora batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.273 — Ozzie Albies batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.271 — Willson Contreras batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.270 — Wilson Ramos batting against Matt Moore.
0.270 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.269 — Buster Posey batting against Patrick Corbin.

For the second day in a row, Mallex Smith tops the Log5 list. He went four for four Monday night, and is now batting .409/.458/.545. Yesterday’s lists were very different. The Log5 list produced four batters with hits, three with no hits, and four pushes. The NN produced five batters with hits, four with no hits, and one push. The top person on the NN, Jose Altuve, did not get a hit, however.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.268, 0.711 — Jose Altuve batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.268, 0.704 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Trevor Williams.
0.280, 0.703 — Dee Gordon batting against Lance McCullers.
0.279, 0.702 — Jean Segura batting against Lance McCullers.
0.264, 0.695 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Trevor Williams.
0.269, 0.690 — Buster Posey batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.290, 0.688 — Mallex Smith batting against Matt Moore.
0.268, 0.686 — David Peralta batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.267, 0.686 — Odubel Herrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.270, 0.686 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tyler Chatwood.

Altuve is just four for 18 against Miranda, one of his lowest BAs against a pitcher he faced at least 18 times. Dee Gordon and Jean Segura are the consensus 1-2 picks.

Note that there is a double header in Toronto today, so if you pick someone from one of those games, make sure they are playing in that particular contest!

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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