Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.311 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.307 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.300 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Leake.
0.291 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zach Davies.
0.290 — Matt Kemp batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.280 — Cody Bellinger batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.278 — Joey Votto batting against Zach Davies.
0.277 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.277 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.277 — Starling Marte batting against Kyle Freeland.

Nolan Arenado was ranked fourth, but he is serving a suspension. In very small sample sizes, Blackmon (1 for 6) and LeMahieu (0 for 5) have not done well against Kuhl.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.300, 0.735 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Leake.
0.311, 0.728 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.307, 0.719 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.291, 0.698 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zach Davies.
0.259, 0.695 — Jean Segura batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.290, 0.693 — Matt Kemp batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.277, 0.691 — Starling Marte batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.271, 0.690 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Leake.
0.257, 0.690 — Dee Gordon batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.262, 0.690 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Tyler Skaggs.

It seems Altuve leads the list every day. He is 5 for 16 against Leake with one strikeout. Blackmon is the consensus first pick. Note that against Kuhl, both Rockies batters have put the ball in play, striking out only once.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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