Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.317 — Adrian Beltre batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.305 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.302 — Jose Altuve batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.299 — Mallex Smith batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.299 — Starling Marte batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.295 — Nomar Mazara batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.294 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.292 — Jed Lowrie batting against Doug Fister.
0.290 — Wilson Ramos batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.287 — Jean Segura batting against James Shields.

Beltre is at the top of the list, but he left Tuesday’s night game with an injury, so he likely won’t be available today. Also, since the Pirates and Tigers are playing a double header, make sure you pick the right game for Dickerson, and that he’s actually starting against Zimmermann.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.302, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.317, 0.721 — Adrian Beltre batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.287, 0.709 — Jean Segura batting against James Shields.
0.305, 0.707 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.285, 0.707 — Dee Gordon batting against James Shields.
0.299, 0.704 — Starling Marte batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.292, 0.702 — Jed Lowrie batting against Doug Fister.
0.254, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Tyson Ross.
0.278, 0.697 — Yadier Molina batting against Steven Matz.
0.283, 0.697 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Michael Wacha.

Of the people likely to play today, Jose Altuve would be the consensus first choice. It’s a tough day to pick from the top ten.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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