Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.309 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chris O’Grady
0.292 — Adam Frazier batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.290 — Josh Harrison batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.290 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chris O’Grady
0.289 — Starling Marte batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.287 — Jon Jay batting against Matt Moore
0.285 — Willson Contreras batting against Matt Moore
0.283 — Andrew McCutchen batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.282 — Javier Baez batting against Matt Moore
0.282 — Jose Osuna batting against Jordan Zimmermann

It’s a good night to pick someone from the Pirates, although Murphy ranks head and shoulders above everyone else. O’Grady’s ERA is high, but not because he allows a lot of hits. Zimmerman gets knocked around for average and power.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.309, 0.757 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chris O’Grady.
0.290, 0.718 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chris O’Grady.
0.289, 0.709 — Starling Marte batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.290, 0.704 — Josh Harrison batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.292, 0.702 — Adam Frazier batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.273, 0.702 — Jonathan Schoop batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.273, 0.699 — Trey Mancini batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.287, 0.698 — Jon Jay batting against Matt Moore.
0.285, 0.695 — Willson Contreras batting against Matt Moore.
0.253, 0.694 — Eric Hosmer batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.266, 0.694 — Eddie Rosario batting against Brent Suter.

Murphy is the unanimous choice. Hot Howie Kendrick is the consensus second choice if you want to double down.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman	34
Christopher Herrmann	27
Raul Mondesi	23
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Joc Pederson	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Mark Trumbo	20
Arismendy Alcantara	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Chris Stewart	19
Jorge Soler	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Eric Sogard	16
Tony John Wolters	16
Paul Janish	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Adam Lind	15
Victor Martinez	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Greg Bird	15
Manuel Pina	15
Mike Zunino	15
Dexter Fowler	14
Austin Romine	14
Corey Dickerson	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Allen Cordoba	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryder Jones	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Joe Mauer	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Stephen Drew	13
Matthew Adams	13
Buster Posey	13
Martin Prado	12
Avisail Garcia	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Jay Bruce	12
Asdrubal Cabrera	12
Martin Maldonado	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Alcides Escobar	12
Miguel Rojas	12
Matthew Szczur	11
Jose Pirela	11
Jose Reyes	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Jose Lobaton	11
Tommy Joseph	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Alex Presley	11
Salvador Perez	11
Brock Stassi	11
Jordy Mercer	10
Luis Sardinas	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Jordan Luplow	10
Brock Holt	10
Erik Gonzalez	10
Tyler Collins	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Jabari Blash	10
Tom Murphy	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Jared W. Hoying	10
Zach Granite	10
Carlos Correa	10

Good luck!

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