Part of the Marlins trading away stars over the winter came from the thought that while the offense was going to be good in 2018, the pitching likely was not. That proved to be true, as the Marlins are allowing 5.09 runs per game, the second highest in the NL and the majors. They are scoring 3.80 runs per game, second lowest in the majors. That should work out to a 41-70 record. The Marlins are 46-65, so they’ve played better than that.
If you look at the lineup Don Mattingly tended to use last season, you see it would score 4.33 runs per game based on the 2018 OBP and slugging percentage of that group of players. The optimum ordering of that group would yield 4.62 runs per game. Let’s split the difference and call it 4.47 runs per game, as Mattingly would have likely adjusted to the ups and downs of the players. That level of scoring coupled with 5.09 runs allowed per game would result in a .435 winning percentage, or a 48-63 record.
The Marlins cut payroll, restocked their farm system, and are just two games back of standing pat. I know the Miami fans would love to see last year’s top of the order still playing for the Fish, but the group appears to have made a wise, long-term decision. Now it’s up to them to do what the Phillies and Braves did, and bring along more young talent.
from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2vCSoJL
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