Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.320 — Jose Martinez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.313 — Yadier Molina batting against Ivan Nova.
0.311 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey.
0.307 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ivan Nova.
0.306 — Yairo Munoz batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302 — Jean Segura batting against Marco Estrada.
0.300 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.299 — David Peralta batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.296 — Adam C Eaton batting against Matt Harvey.
0.293 — Anthony Rendon batting against Matt Harvey.
0.292 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zach Eflin.
0.291 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Harvey.
0.290 — Harrison Bader batting against Ivan Nova.
0.289 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.289 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.287 — Tyler O’Neill batting against Ivan Nova.
0.286 — A.J. Pollock batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.286 — Adam C Eaton batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.286 — Dee Gordon batting against Marco Estrada.
0.286 — Matthew Adams batting against Matt Harvey.
0.286 — Juan Soto batting against Matt Harvey.
0.285 — Nick Markakis batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.285 — Albert Almora batting against Walker Lockett.
0.284 — J.D. Martinez batting against Chance Adams.
0.283 — Starlin Castro batting against Zach Eflin.
0.283 — Anthony Rendon batting against Anthony DeSclafani.

The Reds and Nationals play a split admission double header Saturday. That’s why you are seeing a number of players twice on the list. I suspect Daniel Murphy might only play one of the games, since Washington is trying to keep him healthy, so be careful when you pick. Of course, you could always go with a pair of Cardinals against Ivan Nova.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.311, 0.739 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey.
0.302, 0.731 — Jean Segura batting against Marco Estrada.
0.300, 0.731 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.320, 0.730 — Jose Martinez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.284, 0.720 — J.D. Martinez batting against Chance Adams.
0.313, 0.719 — Yadier Molina batting against Ivan Nova.
0.289, 0.717 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.292, 0.716 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zach Eflin.
0.285, 0.714 — Albert Almora batting against Walker Lockett.
0.299, 0.714 — David Peralta batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.307, 0.713 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ivan Nova.
0.282, 0.712 — Mookie Betts batting against Chance Adams.
0.286, 0.711 — Dee Gordon batting against Marco Estrada.
0.289, 0.709 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.279, 0.708 — Eddie Rosario batting against Burch Smith.
0.275, 0.708 — Scooter Gennett batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.283, 0.707 — Starlin Castro batting against Zach Eflin.
0.296, 0.705 — Adam C Eaton batting against Matt Harvey.
0.281, 0.705 — Michael Brantley batting against Felix Pena.
0.280, 0.703 — Javier Baez batting against Walker Lockett.
0.274, 0.703 — Christian Yelich batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.291, 0.703 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Harvey.
0.306, 0.700 — Yairo Munoz batting against Ivan Nova.
0.293, 0.700 — Anthony Rendon batting against Matt Harvey.
0.282, 0.700 — Ozzie Albies batting against Zack Wheeler.

Murphy against Harvey is scheduled for the night cap. Jose Alutve would have been the top pick if he was not on the disabled list. Segura might be a better pick if you don’t have time to check if Murphy is playing. Murphy against Harvey is the consensus first choice, with Jose Martinez the consensus second choice. Murphy is 4 for 10 career against Harvey.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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