Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.346 — Corey Dickerson batting against Homer Bailey.
0.336 — Starling Marte batting against Homer Bailey.
0.331 — Adam Frazier batting against Homer Bailey.
0.326 — Elias Diaz batting against Homer Bailey.
0.320 — Colin Moran batting against Homer Bailey.
0.316 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.316 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.311 — Josh Harrison batting against Homer Bailey.
0.309 — Adam Jones batting against Mike Leake.
0.306 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.300 — David Fletcher batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.299 — Pablo Reyes batting against Homer Bailey.
0.299 — Jordy Mercer batting against Homer Bailey.
0.298 — Freddie Freeman batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.297 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.295 — Nick Markakis batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.295 — Starlin Castro batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.295 — Jacob Stallings batting against Homer Bailey.
0.294 — Nolan Arenado batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.292 — Miguel Andujar batting against Michael Fiers.
0.291 — Josh Bell batting against Homer Bailey.
0.291 — Kevan Smith batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.291 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.290 — Gregory Polanco batting against Homer Bailey.
0.289 — Charlie Culberson batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.289 — Ozzie Albies batting against Hector Velazquez.

It’s a good day to be a Pirate, although it’s not yet Talk Like a Pirate Day. Dickerson is 4 for 9 against Bailey in their careers.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.346, 0.744 — Corey Dickerson batting against Homer Bailey.
0.316, 0.744 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.306, 0.735 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.336, 0.735 — Starling Marte batting against Homer Bailey.
0.280, 0.727 — Jose Altuve batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.316, 0.726 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.331, 0.726 — Adam Frazier batting against Homer Bailey.
0.297, 0.722 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.292, 0.720 — Miguel Andujar batting against Michael Fiers.
0.309, 0.719 — Adam Jones batting against Mike Leake.
0.268, 0.717 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.261, 0.715 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.282, 0.714 — Jose Martinez batting against Tanner Roark.
0.294, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.326, 0.713 — Elias Diaz batting against Homer Bailey.
0.295, 0.712 — Starlin Castro batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.320, 0.711 — Colin Moran batting against Homer Bailey.
0.298, 0.711 — Freddie Freeman batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.288, 0.710 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.272, 0.707 — Wilson Ramos batting against Sandy Alcantara.
0.291, 0.705 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.287, 0.705 — Gerardo Parra batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.284, 0.704 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.272, 0.704 — Michael Brantley batting against Brad Keller.
0.311, 0.703 — Josh Harrison batting against Homer Bailey.

Dickerson is the unanimous first choice, with Marte the consensus second choice. Note that Dickerson is ahead of Segura, as the program sorts the probability by the actual number, but reports the rounded version.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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