The 2019 series on team offense continues with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals finished tied for ninth in the majors in the majors and tied for fourth in the National League in 2018 with 4.69 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Mike Shildt order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. The actual numbers from 2018 were used for the Cardinals pitchers. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 4.94
- Probable lineup: 4.69
- Worst lineup: 4.37
- Regressed lineup: 4.40
I am not impressed with the construction of this batting order. If one is going for a traditional lineup with two table setters at the top, I would not put the second worst OBP in the lineup there. Also, if Kolten Wong is going to bat eighth with a projected .344 OBP, the Cardinals should bat him ninth, as the LAT indicates.
One problem the Cardinals seem to have is that Matt Carpenter does not generate as much offense when he bats outside the lead-off slot. Some hitters simply more comfortable in a particular slot. The Cardinals have tried to move him in the past to take better advantage of his power, but he always returns to the top. Paul Goldschmidt should prove to be a great addition to the team. He may help Marcell Ozuna a bit, too. Goldschmidt walks a lot and it’s tougher to pitch around someone like Ozuna when there is a man on first.
Yadier Molina‘s time in the middle of the order is through. We will see how long he lasts in the fifth or sixth slot. He’s been a great offensive and defensive catcher in his career, and it won’t be easy moving him down in the order. The Cardinals may just live with it until Molina realizes it is the best move.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet. If you like this series, consider a donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Cleveland Indians
- Oakland Athletics
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Houston Astros
- Colorado Rockies
- Washington Nationals
- Atlanta Braves
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