Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.327 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Matz
0.321 — Robinson Cano batting against Dillon Gee
0.320 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea
0.313 — Manny Machado batting against Tim Lincecum
0.312 — Martin Prado batting against Cody Reed
0.311 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Cody Reed
0.304 — Ian Desmond batting against Tom Milone
0.304 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Tim Lincecum
0.304 — Melky Cabrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.302 — Ryan Braun batting against Mike Leake

This seems like the usual cast of characters.

The NN produces this list:

0.320, 0.761 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.327, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Matz.
0.321, 0.746 — Robinson Cano batting against Dillon Gee.
0.304, 0.738 — Melky Cabrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.283, 0.735 — Jose Abreu batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.312, 0.730 — Martin Prado batting against Cody Reed.
0.256, 0.728 — Ben Revere batting against Steven Matz.
0.258, 0.728 — Eduardo Nunez batting against A.J. Griffin.
0.277, 0.727 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.278, 0.727 — Corey Seager batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.295, 0.727 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zach Eflin.

It looks like a Murphy-Altuve double down day!

The NN with park consideration alters the list like this:

0.320, 0.719 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.321, 0.710 — Robinson Cano batting against Dillon Gee.
0.327, 0.704 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Matz.
0.295, 0.701 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zach Eflin.
0.304, 0.698 — Melky Cabrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.283, 0.696 — Jose Abreu batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.277, 0.694 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.258, 0.694 — Eduardo Nunez batting against A.J. Griffin.
0.312, 0.690 — Martin Prado batting against Cody Reed.
0.281, 0.689 — Charles Blackmon batting against Zach Eflin.
0.268, 0.689 — Yunel Escobar batting against Chris Tillman.

All three methods agree on the three, including Cano. As always, your best pick has a 25% of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29HhTiO