Friday, July 15, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.339 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton
0.312 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Michael Pineda
0.300 — Ryan Braun batting against Anthony DeSclafani
0.299 — Mookie Betts batting against Michael Pineda
0.294 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.292 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Anthony DeSclafani
0.292 — Didi Gregorius batting against Eduardo Rodriguez
0.292 — Odubel Herrera batting against Bartolo Colon
0.292 — Corey Seager batting against Patrick Corbin
0.291 — Carlos Beltran batting against Eduardo Rodriguez

Even the Yankees can do well against Eduardo Rodriguez.

The NN lists these players in the top ten:

0.339, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.312, 0.745 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Michael Pineda.
0.288, 0.737 — Buster Posey batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.278, 0.734 — Robinson Cano batting against Doug Fister.
0.292, 0.734 — Odubel Herrera batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.299, 0.732 — Mookie Betts batting against Michael Pineda.
0.286, 0.729 — Yunel Escobar batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.292, 0.728 — Corey Seager batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.279, 0.725 — Francisco Lindor batting against Ervin Santana.
0.287, 0.725 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Wei-Yin Chen.

The NN with park information modifies the list like this:

0.339, 0.719 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.312, 0.704 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Michael Pineda.
0.288, 0.699 — Buster Posey batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.292, 0.697 — Odubel Herrera batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.292, 0.695 — Corey Seager batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.278, 0.694 — Robinson Cano batting against Doug Fister.
0.299, 0.692 — Mookie Betts batting against Michael Pineda.
0.279, 0.691 — Francisco Lindor batting against Ervin Santana.
0.286, 0.689 — Yunel Escobar batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.252, 0.688 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Justin Verlander.
0.268, 0.688 — Howie Kendrick batting against Patrick Corbin.

Three programs agree, take Altuve and Bogaerts. Even the best picks will fail 25% of the time, however.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29NQegQ

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