Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.335 — Corey Seager batting against Chad Bettis
0.322 — Manny Machado batting against James Paxton
0.318 — Darwin Barney batting against Cody Anderson
0.312 — Devon Travis batting against Cody Anderson
0.308 — Kevin Pillar batting against Cody Anderson
0.308 — Paulo Orlando batting against Aaron Nola
0.308 — Ian Desmond batting against Tyler Duffey
0.306 — Adrian Gonzalez batting against Chad Bettis
0.306 — Jonathan Schoop batting against James Paxton
0.304 — Michael Saunders batting against Cody Anderson

Cody Anderson is an emergency starter for the Indians today, after Trevor Bauer got the win the Canada Day marathon. He is being called up for the start.

The NN produces this list:

0.266, 0.745 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Sale.
0.296, 0.742 — Buster Posey batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.335, 0.739 — Corey Seager batting against Chad Bettis.
0.300, 0.731 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chad Bettis.
0.288, 0.729 — Robinson Cano batting against Tyler Wilson.
0.300, 0.729 — Adrian Beltre batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.279, 0.728 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Blake Snell.
0.287, 0.727 — Martin Prado batting against Lucas Harrell.
0.279, 0.726 — Yunel Escobar batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.275, 0.726 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Hector Santiago.

The NN likes Altuve so much that it even rates him #1 against Chris Sale! Of course, he went hitless last night. That’s a reminder that even the best on the list will fail to get a hit 25% of the time. Note that there is a real divergence today between the two lists. The NN does not put a Cody Anderson opponent in the top ten.

Here is the NN list with park considerations:

0.296, 0.707 — Buster Posey batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.266, 0.703 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Sale.
0.335, 0.696 — Corey Seager batting against Chad Bettis.
0.300, 0.694 — Adrian Beltre batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.279, 0.692 — Yunel Escobar batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.275, 0.692 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Hector Santiago.
0.300, 0.690 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chad Bettis.
0.288, 0.689 — Robinson Cano batting against Tyler Wilson.
0.287, 0.687 — Martin Prado batting against Lucas Harrell.
0.279, 0.686 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Blake Snell.
0.271, 0.686 — Joe Panik batting against Patrick Corbin.

Xander Bogaerts gets a big boost when you include the park. Corey Seager appears to be the consensus top pick.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29AWBC1