Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.330 — Logan Forsythe batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Lamb
0.321 — Yunel Escobar batting against Sean O’Sullivan
0.315 — Evan Longoria batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.310 — Mike Trout batting against Sean O’Sullivan
0.309 — Manny Machado batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.308 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matthew Shoemaker
0.307 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Quintana
0.304 — Wilson Ramos batting against John Lamb
0.303 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brandon McCarthy

The combination of Logan Forsythe’s hitting streak and Mike Pelfrey’s poor pitching brings the Tampa Bay infielder to the top of the list.

The NN produces this top 10:

0.307, 0.764 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Quintana.
0.321, 0.749 — Yunel Escobar batting against Sean O’Sullivan.
0.326, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Lamb.
0.300, 0.745 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.308, 0.740 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.297, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Robbie Ray.
0.290, 0.736 — Charles Blackmon batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.282, 0.735 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.258, 0.734 — Ben Revere batting against John Lamb.
0.303, 0.734 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Brandon McCarthy.

Brandon McCarthy returns from Tommy John surgery today. His high BA allowed with few walks makes since 2014 makes him a prime candidate to give up a hit in the eyes of the Neural Network. He did give up 15 hits in 13 2/3 innings in the minors this year.

Taking ballparks into consideration, the NN produces this result:

0.307, 0.723 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Quintana.
0.321, 0.715 — Yunel Escobar batting against Sean O’Sullivan.
0.326, 0.706 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Lamb.
0.308, 0.705 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.297, 0.704 — Buster Posey batting against Robbie Ray.
0.300, 0.704 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.310, 0.697 — Mike Trout batting against Sean O’Sullivan.
0.258, 0.695 — Ben Revere batting against John Lamb.
0.282, 0.694 — Nolan Arenado batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.290, 0.694 — Charles Blackmon batting against Brandon McCarthy.

Escobar and Murphy appear to be the consensus picks. As always, the best player you can pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29euJ8n