Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.339 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Garza
0.331 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Justin Nicolino
0.321 — James Loney batting against Justin Nicolino
0.311 — Wilson Ramos batting against Matt Garza
0.310 — Juan Lagares batting against Justin Nicolino
0.305 — Paulo Orlando batting against Marcus Stroman
0.301 — Jose Reyes batting against Justin Nicolino
0.297 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Justin Nicolino
0.297 — Danny Valencia batting against Ervin Santana
0.296 — Neil Walker batting against Justin Nicolino

Nicolino allows a .307 hit average this season, and .273 weighted average in his two years in the majors. Murphy and Ramos hit so well this year, they get in on the action.

The NN produces this top ten result:

0.339, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Garza.
0.282, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.292, 0.741 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Martin Perez.
0.267, 0.739 — Ben Revere batting against Matt Garza.
0.331, 0.731 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.321, 0.731 — James Loney batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.273, 0.725 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.301, 0.724 — Jose Reyes batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.273, 0.724 — Mookie Betts batting against Martin Perez.
0.286, 0.723 — Yunel Escobar batting against Drew Smyly.
0.270, 0.723 — Buster Posey batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.275, 0.723 — Josh Harrison batting against Jaime Garcia.

The NN is a bit more about the hitters, but opponents against Nicolino still make the list a number of times.

The NN with park data changes the order to this:

0.339, 0.713 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Garza.
0.282, 0.709 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.292, 0.707 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Martin Perez.
0.267, 0.700 — Ben Revere batting against Matt Garza.
0.273, 0.691 — Mookie Betts batting against Martin Perez.
0.321, 0.690 — James Loney batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.331, 0.690 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.273, 0.688 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.297, 0.687 — Danny Valencia batting against Ervin Santana.
0.270, 0.687 — Buster Posey batting against Jorge de la Rosa.

All three methods agree on Daniel Murphy at the top, with Mets Cespedes and Loney the second picks. Again, your best picks will fail to get a hit 75% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29ml93h