Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.324 — Darwin Barney batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.321 — Michael Saunders batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.316 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.313 — Paulo Orlando batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.312 — Josh Donaldson batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.310 — Kevin Pillar batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.308 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard
0.308 — Devon Travis batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.304 — Steve Pearce batting against Sean O’Sullivan
0.302 — Danny Valencia batting against Collin McHugh

It appears to be a good night to pick a Blue Jays hitter, as they face Pelfrey. Batters are hitting .332 against Pelfrey this season. Against position players, his hit average (Hits/PA) is .297, while the league average is .233.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.291, 0.756 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.292, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.308, 0.734 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.316, 0.731 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.310, 0.727 — Kevin Pillar batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.273, 0.727 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Cole Hamels.
0.284, 0.726 — Corey Seager batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.321, 0.725 — Michael Saunders batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.262, 0.725 — Miguel Cabrera batting against J.A. Happ.
0.265, 0.724 — Corey Dickerson batting against Sean O’Sullivan.
0.308, 0.724 — Devon Travis batting against Mike Pelfrey.

The quality of the hitter is a bit more important to the NN. Darwin Barney owns a very good hit average in 2016, but his three-year number is lower, and that pulls him off the NN list.

The NN with park consideration changes the list like this:

0.291, 0.714 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.292, 0.702 — Buster Posey batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.261, 0.697 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.316, 0.695 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.273, 0.693 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.308, 0.693 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.265, 0.692 — Corey Dickerson batting against Sean O’Sullivan.
0.273, 0.692 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Cole Hamels.
0.273, 0.690 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Chris Archer.
0.310, 0.688 — Kevin Pillar batting against Mike Pelfrey.

Coors Field elevates LeHahieu onto the list. The ballpark in Toronto has been below average in producing his over the last three seasons, nearly eliminating Blue Jays hitters from contention. Kevin Pillar is the only Jays hitter left, but Yunel Escobar appears to be the consensus choice among the three methods.

As always, your best choice is going to go hitless 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29m8QWc