Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.300 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard
0.289 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard
0.285 — Ian Desmond batting against Clayton Richard
0.284 — Nolan Arenado batting against Clayton Richard
0.281 — Gerardo Parra batting against Clayton Richard
0.277 — Jose Altuve batting against Dylan Bundy
0.270 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Clayton Richard
0.270 — Corey Seager batting against Patrick Corbin
0.270 — Adam C Eaton batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.269 — Howie Kendrick batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.269 — Joe Mauer batting against Ivan Nova

Clayton Richard tends to enhance the ability of batters. Since 2016, he allowed a ton of hits without allowing a ton of walks, giving him a .288 hit average in that time. The Log5 method indicates the Rockies should have a good night tonight.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.300, 0.727 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.277, 0.723 — Jose Altuve batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.289, 0.710 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard.
0.284, 0.698 — Nolan Arenado batting against Clayton Richard.
0.264, 0.697 — Dee Gordon batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.263, 0.697 — Jean Segura batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.281, 0.695 — Gerardo Parra batting against Clayton Richard.
0.285, 0.695 — Ian Desmond batting against Clayton Richard.
0.267, 0.693 — Avisail Garcia batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.265, 0.688 — Trea Turner batting against Mike Foltynewicz.

The NN agrees that Charlie Blackmon is the most likely batter to get a hit today. Note, however, that it rasises Altuve to second, since the NN gives the batter’s hit average more weight than the hit average of the pitcher. DJ LeMahieu is the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2GU1CsE