Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.346 — Paulo Orlando batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.339 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo
0.333 — Angel Pagan batting against Luis Perdomo
0.332 — Ramiro Pena batting against Luis Perdomo
0.327 — Eric Hosmer batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.321 — Brandon Belt batting against Luis Perdomo
0.320 — Whit Merrifield batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.319 — Salvador Perez batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.319 — Jose Altuve batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.318 — Kelby Tomlinson batting against Luis Perdomo

Perdomo continues to give up hits at a high rate despite a good strikeout rate. He allowed 18 hits in 12 July innings.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.319, 0.759 — Jose Altuve batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.275, 0.750 — Justin Morneau batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.315, 0.749 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.339, 0.747 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.286, 0.741 — Xander Bogaerts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.327, 0.739 — Eric Hosmer batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.346, 0.738 — Paulo Orlando batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.317, 0.738 — Daniel Murphy batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.301, 0.737 — Charles Blackmon batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.314, 0.736 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.290, 0.734 — Nolan Arenado batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.298, 0.734 — Francisco Lindor batting against Tyler Duffey.

I would take Justin Morneau’s appearance with a grain of salt. He pinch hit Friday night, his first appearance of 2016. His longer term hit average is good, and that’s dominating the NN. The NN also likes the Rockies against Mike Foltynewicz.

The NN with park effect modifies the list like this:

0.319, 0.718 — Jose Altuve batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.275, 0.711 — Justin Morneau batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.315, 0.709 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.339, 0.708 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.327, 0.703 — Eric Hosmer batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.346, 0.702 — Paulo Orlando batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.286, 0.701 — Xander Bogaerts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.298, 0.699 — Francisco Lindor batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.301, 0.697 — Charles Blackmon batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.317, 0.697 — Daniel Murphy batting against Gerrit Cole.

Murphy sat out Friday’s game with a sore leg, so check his status before selecting him. Altuve, Posey, and Orlando appear to be the consensus picks. As always, your best picks are going to fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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