Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Kuhl
0.319 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jacob Turner
0.306 — Robinson Cano batting against Collin McHugh
0.299 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Josh Tomlin
0.298 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray
0.295 — Wilson Ramos batting against Chad Kuhl
0.293 — Martin Prado batting against Michael Wacha
0.292 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jered Weaver
0.292 — Michael Trout batting against Jacob Turner
0.292 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Michael Wacha

Jacob Turner has not pitched in the majors since 2014, and he wasn’t very good then. Daniel Murphy is day-to-day with a hamstring issue, so be careful in selecting him.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.319, 0.764 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jacob Turner.
0.280, 0.746 — Justin Morneau batting against Jered Weaver.
0.256, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.321, 0.739 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.292, 0.737 — Michael Trout batting against Jacob Turner.
0.283, 0.734 — Buster Posey batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.299, 0.733 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.306, 0.729 — Robinson Cano batting against Collin McHugh.
0.298, 0.727 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray.
0.276, 0.725 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.285, 0.725 — Howie Kendrick batting against Robbie Ray.

The NN likes Escobar better than Murphy.

The NN with park considerations produces this list:

0.319, 0.724 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jacob Turner.
0.280, 0.706 — Justin Morneau batting against Jered Weaver.
0.256, 0.704 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.321, 0.699 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.299, 0.698 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.292, 0.697 — Michael Trout batting against Jacob Turner.
0.283, 0.696 — Buster Posey batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.298, 0.694 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray.
0.285, 0.691 — Howie Kendrick batting against Robbie Ray.
0.306, 0.688 — Robinson Cano batting against Collin McHugh.

Escobar and Murphy are the consensus choices, but with Murphy hurt you may wish to consider Nunez, Seager, and Trout. As always, your best pick has about a 25% chance of not getting a hit in the game. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29EdUWq