Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Perdomo
0.329 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kendall Graveman
0.328 — Danny Valencia batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.327 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade Miley
0.317 — Jacob Lamb batting against Luis Perdomo
0.315 — Josh Reddick batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.314 — Welington Castillo batting against Luis Perdomo
0.312 — Martin Prado batting against Matt Harvey
0.312 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Luis Perdomo
0.311 — Brandon Drury batting against Luis Perdomo

Log5 likes pretty much any hitter against Luis Perdomo. He pitched better lately, however, so beware the small sample size.

The NN produces this top ten:

0.327, 0.765 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade Miley.
0.329, 0.746 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.328, 0.745 — Danny Valencia batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.293, 0.742 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nick Martinez.
0.299, 0.736 — Yunel Escobar batting against Matt Moore.
0.281, 0.732 — Daniel Murphy batting against Junior Guerra.
0.283, 0.730 — Buster Posey batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.289, 0.729 — Billy Burns batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.298, 0.728 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Jonathon Niese.
0.267, 0.727 — Adrian Beltre batting against Rick Porcello.

The NN is better at correcting for the small sample size, and batters against Perdomo don’t appear on this list.

Here is the list for NN with park consideration:

0.327, 0.723 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade Miley.
0.329, 0.710 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.328, 0.710 — Danny Valencia batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.293, 0.708 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nick Martinez.
0.289, 0.695 — Billy Burns batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.299, 0.694 — Yunel Escobar batting against Matt Moore.
0.267, 0.694 — Adrian Beltre batting against Rick Porcello.
0.283, 0.693 — Buster Posey batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.281, 0.692 — Daniel Murphy batting against Junior Guerra.
0.298, 0.691 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Jonathon Niese.

It looks like Nunez, Valencia, and Altuve are the consensus picks. As always, your best picks will not get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29sRQvE