Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.344 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Morgan
0.344 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Adam Morgan
0.330 — Charles Blackmon batting against Adam Morgan
0.328 — Odubel Herrera batting against Chad Bettis
0.328 — Daniel Murphy batting against Bartolo Colon
0.326 — Paulo Orlando batting against James Paxton
0.319 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Chad Bettis
0.319 — Gerardo Parra batting against Adam Morgan
0.318 — Nolan Arenado batting against Adam Morgan
0.317 — Eric Hosmer batting against James Paxton

It looks like a good day to pick a Rockies hitter. Opponents own a .315 BA against Adam Morgan this season, and the game is at Coors.

The NN puts these hitters in the top ten:

0.328, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.344, 0.746 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Morgan.
0.328, 0.742 — Odubel Herrera batting against Chad Bettis.
0.261, 0.741 — Ben Revere batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.244, 0.737 — Jose Altuve batting against Rich Hill.
0.330, 0.736 — Charles Blackmon batting against Adam Morgan.
0.277, 0.735 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Drew Hutchison.
0.300, 0.734 — Francisco Lindor batting against Ivan Nova.
0.344, 0.734 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Adam Morgan.
0.318, 0.733 — Nolan Arenado batting against Adam Morgan.

With a low walk rate and a medium strike out rate, batters can put balls in play against Colon. So his hit average is higher than the MLB average against position players, which will promote good hitters like Murphy. Rockies against Morgan still figure highly on the list.

Here is the top ten for the NN considering the park:

0.344, 0.719 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Morgan.
0.328, 0.715 — Odubel Herrera batting against Chad Bettis.
0.328, 0.711 — Daniel Murphy batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.330, 0.709 — Charles Blackmon batting against Adam Morgan.
0.344, 0.707 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Adam Morgan.
0.318, 0.707 — Nolan Arenado batting against Adam Morgan.
0.319, 0.704 — Gerardo Parra batting against Adam Morgan.
0.261, 0.701 — Ben Revere batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.290, 0.699 — Nick Hundley batting against Adam Morgan.
0.300, 0.698 — Francisco Lindor batting against Ivan Nova.

With the park under consideration, the Rockies fill the the list again. It looks like DJ LeMahieu is the consensus pick.

By the way, the predictors had a bad day yesterday. The top three consensus picks were Daniel Murphy, Yoenis Cespedes, and James Loney, and none of them picked up a hit. Any player you select has at least a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29uE8rT