Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Trout Under the Knife

Mike Trout underwent thumb surgery on Wednesday:

Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout underwent successful surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament of his left thumb as well as his dorsal capsule, the team announced Wednesday.

The surgery, performed by Dr. Steve Shin in Los Angeles, is expected to sideline Trout six to eight weeks.

Batters often take some time to get their swings back after thumb and wrist injuries. This will likely be the first year his Trout played a full season that he hasn’t been a legitimate MVP candidate.



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Another Pinto

Ricardo Pinto made his major league debut in relief for the Phillies today, and like the MLB Pintos before him, he failed to impress. Pinto allowed six hits and three walks in two innings, giving up four runs. The Marlins pounded two other pitchers as well as they win 10-2.

Pinto was a low walk, low strikeout pitcher in the minors. I won’t be surprised if he gives up a lot of hits in the majors, but he needs to prevent walks to limit the damage.



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No Limitations

A.J. Hinch made a very positive comment about the Astros the other day:

The Houston Astros have the best record in baseball and their best start in franchise history.

Surprising?

Not for the manager A.J. Hinch and these unflappable Astros.

“I didn’t put any limitations on this team,” Hinch said. “So I don’t really have a baseline of how many games I expected to win.”

With a 17-6 win over the Twins Wednesday afternoon, the Astros now hold a .704 winning percentage. I heard someone comment on the above, saying that the Astros are going for the regular season win record. That would be 116 wins by the 1906 Cubs and the 2001 Mariners. The Mariners are the better comparison, since they played 162 games with better opponents. They posted a .716 winning percentage, so the Astros are not that far off. The 1954 Indians won 111 games with a .721 winning percentage, so if Hinch is putting no limitations on the team, they might want to aim for that record as well.

The Astros now outscored their opponents 292 to 202. That works out to a Pythagorean win percentage of .676, so the team benefited from a little luck. Hinch again:

Pressed about whether anything about the Astros has surprised him this season, he contemplates the question for a few moments before slowly answering.

“Maybe the ability to hang in there when things aren’t going our way,” he said. “There’s a calmness about our team that has matured over the last year. I don’t know if that’s surprised me or if it’s just made me very proud.”

The Astros had some early success with a strong, young team. Sometimes they fall back as the league adjusts, as we are seeing with the Cubs this year. They’ve seen winning, they’ve seen a collapse, they’ve seen a bad year. Nothing surprises these players anymore, and a great front office has developed a great team.

(Note that despite the drubbing by the Astros, the Twins are in a very similar boat. Two years ago, a good young team surprised people, then fell off. Minnesota is now realizing the potential of that 2015 team.)



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Games of the Day

The mismatch of the day goes to the first game of the day, Zach Godley against Chad Kuhl as the Diamondbacks take on the Pirates. Godley comes into the game with a 1.99 ERA thanks to a low BA allowed and few extra base hits. Kuhl owns a 6.29 ERA due to a high BA allowed and many extra base hits. Kuhl’s three-true outcome stats indicate he shouldn’t be that bad, and Godley’s indicate he should be that good. Kuhl’s xFIP is 4.98, Godley’s is 3.25.

The Yankees and Orioles play the rubber game of their series, with Masahiro Tanaka taking on Kevin Gausman, two good pitchers having poor years. On May 15th, the New York Post talked about the Yankees rotation caving in. Since that time, the rotation owns a 2.85 ERA with an 8-4 record in 14 games. In the last nine starts, the starters allowed three runs or less. In fact, Tanaka’s penultimate game was the last really poor outing by a Yankees starter. Gausman had a better May, hurt by one bad start. He does allow quite a few hits, however.

In the game between the Rays and the Rangers, Chris Archer faces Austin Bibens-Dirkx. I don’t have much to say, but I had to work Austin Bibens-Dirkx into a post. You don’t see a rkx combination very often. At seasonal age 32, he is hardly a prospect.

Finally, my current favorite for Cy Young is Antonio Senzatela, who leads the Rockies against the Mariners and James Paxton. Senzatela limits hits despite a low strikeout rate, and limits them both home and away. If he ends the season with a 3.19 ERA with half his games in Coors, he should take home the trophy. Paxton looks a little like the Clayton Kershaw at his best. He’s striking out tons of batters and has yet to allow a home run. If his walk rate was lower, he would be right there with Kershaw.

Enjoy!



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Pujols Watch

Albert Pujols hit career home run 599 Tuesday night as the Angels beat the Braves 9-3. Pujols heated up a bit lately as he tries to become the ninth player to crack 600 home runs.

Pujols’s career reminds me a bit of Hank Aaron, a steady producer without the monster season we saw from slugger like Ruth and Bonds. The main difference is that Aaron didn’t let up in his 30s, hitting 203 home runs from seasonal age 35 through seasonal age 39. In eleven seasons with the Cardinals, Pujols averaged a little over 40 home runs a year. In 5 1/3 seasons with the Angels, he averaged about 29 home runs per season. Like Ken Griffey, Jr., his Hall of Fame career came in his youth, and he couldn’t finish strong enough to set a career record. Still, this will be a nice cherry on top of an amazing career.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.337 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman
0.333 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Cain
0.324 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Matt Cain
0.315 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.315 — Chris Owings batting against Chad Kuhl
0.315 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Boyd
0.314 — David Peralta batting against Chad Kuhl
0.311 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kevin Gausman
0.306 — Aaron Judge batting against Kevin Gausman
0.305 — Matt Kemp batting against Jesse Chavez
0.305 — Brandon Drury batting against Chad Kuhl
0.305 — Whit Merrifield batting against Matt Boyd

A number of Yankees make the list against Kevin Gausman, including Starlin Castro at the top. Aaron Judge makes the list as his excellent 2017 season is starting to dominate is weak 2016 cup of coffee. Whit Merrifield also appears. Merrifield currently owns the longest hit streak in the majors at 15 games, and is hitting a torrid .404/.446/.654 in that time.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.333, 0.765 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Cain.
0.315, 0.751 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.337, 0.741 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.297, 0.739 — Jean Segura batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.324, 0.731 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Matt Cain.
0.281, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against Hector Santiago.
0.314, 0.729 — David Peralta batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.273, 0.726 — Charlie Blackmon batting against James Paxton.
0.305, 0.725 — Matt Kemp batting against Jesse Chavez.
0.315, 0.722 — Chris Owings batting against Chad Kuhl.

Daniel Murphy rises to the top of this list as the usual cast of hitters filter up. Jean Segura, who had the highest probability of at least a hit in a game yesterday, went four for six against the Rockies. The series moves to Seattle tonight. Murphy is also the consensus pick. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 29
Johnny Cueto 23
Raul Mondesi 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Cameron Rupp 22
Tyler Anderson 22
Scott Feldman 21
Kyle Higashioka 20
Brian McCann 20
Conor Gillaspie 19
Chris Carter 19
Ben Revere 18
Devin Mesoraco 18
Christopher Herrmann 17
Kyle Hendricks 16
Zack Greinke 16
Luke Maile 16
Erick Aybar 15
Mike Foltynewicz 15
Greg Bird 15
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Adam Jones 14
Brandon McCarthy 14
Chris Gimenez 14
Robert Gsellman 14
Michael Wacha 14
Keon Broxton 14
Nick Castellanos 14
Julio Teheran 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Kevin Pillar 13
Manny Machado 13
Bartolo Colon 13
Hanley Ramirez 13
Ben Zobrist 13
Raimel Tapia 13
Sandy Leon 12
Chad Kuhl 12
Jose Reyes 12
Matt Garza 12
Bryce Harper 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Trevor Plouffe 12
Brandon Moss 12
Leonys Martin 12
Craig Gentry 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Timothy Adleman 11
Starling Marte 11
Matt Moore 11
Zack Wheeler 11
Anthony Rizzo 11
Lance Lynn 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Chad Pinder 10
Erik Gonzalez 10
Lonnie Chisenhall 10
Zach Davies 10
Stuart Turner 10
Francisco Cervelli 10
Tyler Collins 10
Trevor Williams 10
Jered Weaver 10
Thomas Koehler 10
Kennys Vargas 10
Ryan Braun 10
Yandy Diaz 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Denard Span 10
Ryan Rua 10
Ian Happ 10
Alex Wood 10
Luis Sardinas 10

Good luck!



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Wednesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Hunters And Farmers…….Again

There’s a round of discussions going on about Hunters and Farmers.  Underlying these discussions are attitudes, “Real sales people eat fresh meat every day”  (The hunter camp), “We need to develop our accounts to maximize LCV” (Farmers).

I even saw a post  on, “Which is better, a farmer who generates $1M of incremental business, or a hunter who generates $1M of new business?”  It’s as if $M from one is better than $1M from the other—they miss the point that each is developing $1M of incremental revenue!

That’s what sales people are supposed to do, they are supposed to develop incremental revenue!

Hunters do it in a territory, maximizing their share of territory.  Farmers do it in a territory, maximizing their share of territory.

If you are reading carefully, you’ll recognize the hunters and farmers are doing the exact same thing.  The are generating net new revenue from their territories.  A hunter’s territory may be defined as a city, region, country, or industry.  A farmers territory may be defined as a set of accounts.

Hunters may generate revenue from net new customers–organizations that we’ve never done business with or it’s been a number of years.

Farmers may generate revenue from customers who are doing business with us, but with whom we expect to get more business.

Is a dollar from one worth more than a dollar from another?  If our goal is to grow revenue, we want to seize every dollar of spending that’s in our addressable market!  This means finding new business–either from customers who are not currently doing business with us or from accounts that can be doing more business with us.

Whether we have a “new account territory,” or an “account based territory,” sales people are accountable:

  1. They must have a mindset to pursue 100% share of territory and 100% share of account.
  2. They must sell the entire product portfolio.  We may start with one product line, but we expand within accounts and our territories by selling the entire produce line.  Plus that’s our responsibility in executing our companies’ strategies.
  3. They must find new customers–new enterprises, new divisions, business units, buyers within our current customers.  There is a mistaken view that “farmers” don’t prospect.  That’s plain wrong.  If they don’t prospect, how do we get 100% share of account?
  4. They must retain and grow the business. Let me be very clear about this.  We have to keep the business we are getting–this is particularly relevant in subscription, recurring revenue models.  But we have to grow the business–that is adding net incremental revenue to the base, always growing the base.  It may be adding new subscriptions, it may be finding new opportunities in other parts of the business, it may be cross sell of other product/service lines.  Some companies don’t make their hunters accountable for this, I think (with some caveats), this is a mistake.

Forget these ridiculous labels, forget the ego driven contests about who is a “real sales person.”  Our jobs are to drive net incremental revenue in everything we do.  Where ever that comes from is critical to our growth, share and success.

 

 



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Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Hit or Miss

Chris Sale returns to Chicago with an unusual pitching line so far. Through five innings, he struck out nine and walked two. Of the 16 batters who put the bat on the ball, however, ten collected hits. The Red Sox are hitting better, so despite giving up six runs, Sale is in the game as Boston leads the White Sox 10-6. It’s one of those game where Sale is simultaneously pitching well and poorly.



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Stop Messing with My Pattern Recognizer

Some players see the holiday hats as simply a way for MLB to make money:

It’s that last, most recent (and solemn) holiday that finally appeared to move a few players to push back (via UniWatch.com), led by Dodgers pitcher Brandon McCarthy‘s sarcastic tweet to start Memorial Day, connecting “soldiers [who] died protecting our country” and buying MLB-licensed hats “to say thank you.”

When followers noted that proceeds from the sale of the camouflage-themed gear go to veterans charities, McCarthy questioned: “Seems like the sort of thing you’d mention on the product page?”

I am not a fan of the uniform changes. It’s amazing to me how both teams wearing the same color cap makes it difficult to tell which team is on the field. I find myself having to look closely at the uniforms. In a way, it’s impressive how we can compress team recognition into a bit of fabric on a player’s head. Change that, and I have to work harder to see what’s going on.

How about a nice patch on the uniform instead?



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Suspensions Come Down

MLB meted out punishment for the fight between Bryce Harper and Hunter Strickland. Strickland gets six games, Harper four games.

Both players will appeal the decision, meaning both will remain active Tuesday night.

The four games given Harper, assuming they stand on appeal, represent a moderate punishment relative to those doled out for similar fighting incidents. The longest suspension given for fighting is 10 games. Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor received an eight-game suspension after he landed a punch against Blue Jays’ slugger Jose Bautista last season. In other words, MLB did not come down particularly harshly on Harper, though it did not take it easy, either.

I’m glad Strickland got the longer punishment. As I’ve written in the past, intentionally throwing at a batter should be a major deal, and the pitcher suspended for a very long time. I understand that fighting can lead to injuries for a ton of other players, but if the pitcher knows he is going to lose a month of pay, he may be less likely to throw at fastball directly at a batter.

The Giants aren’t really sticking up for Strickland, either:

For what it’s worth, here’s what Posey told reporters, including KNBR’s Sam Hustis, about the brawl after the game:

“Well I mean after it happened, I kind of saw Harper’s point,” Posey told reporters following the Nationals 3-0 win. “Next thing you know, he’s going out after him. Those are some big guys tumbling around on the ground.
“You see Mike Morse, is about as big as they come, and he was getting knocked around like a pinball. So…be a little dangerous to get in there sometimes.”

The Giants talked to Strickland about his hot head back in the 2014 World Series:

When Perez was headed toward home plate, Strickland started jawing at him. Players came out of both dugouts, and in this instance, Giants catcher Buster Posey seemed to tell Strickland to calm down.

Strickland appeared to be ready to fight.

After the game, Giants manager Bruce Bochy said: “He’s a really intense kid. That’s probably an area he’s going to have to keep his poise. … He’s a tough kid. He shows his emotions. But it’s an area he probably has to work on, because you’re going to give up a home run occasionally.”

I guess that didn’t sink in.



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Games of the Day

The Diamondbacks take on the Pirates as Robbie Ray faces Ivan Nova. Ray is once again blowing away batters, with 74 strikeouts in 60 innings. He pitched very well on the road this season with a 0.81 ERA in five starts. Only one of his seven home runs allowed came on the road. Nova averages seven inning per start this year. Despite pitching to contact (37 K, 5 BB in 70 innings), he allowed just 71 hits for a .261 BA.

Chris Sale returns to the south side of Chicago (which I hear, is the baddest part of town) as he leads the Red Sox against his former rotation mate Jose Quintana. Sale struck out at least 200 batters in each of his last four seasons, and one-third of the way through 2017, he’s halfway there. He is 42-24 with a 3.01 ERA in his career at US Cellular Field. Quintana pitched into some bad luck this season, as his overall stats look better than his 4.82 ERA. He’s allowed a .357/.453/.571 line with runners in scoring position.

Finally, the small sample size game of the day pits Eddie Butler of the Cubs against Dinelson Lamet of the Padres. Butler makes his fourth start of the season, and owns a 1.93 ERA despite walking ten batters in 14 innings. He allowed just nine hits, however, so the walks have not hurt him much. Lamet makes his second start after striking out eight batters in five innings and allowing one run in his debut.

Enjoy!



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.333 — Jean Segura batting against Tyler Anderson
0.328 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Bartolo Colon
0.321 — Travis Shaw batting against Tom Milone
0.318 — Corey Dickerson batting against Nick Martinez
0.314 — Wilmer Flores batting against Zach Davies
0.313 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.313 — David Peralta batting against Ivan Nova
0.311 — Hernan Perez batting against Tom Milone
0.310 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.310 — Eric Sogard batting against Tom Milone
0.310 — Manuel Pina batting against Tom Milone
0.310 — Chris Owings batting against Ivan Nova

For the record, the highest predicted hit average for a batter against a starting pitcher today belonged to Mike Trout, now on the disabled list, .337. Segura is likely a very good pick as the game is being played in Colorado. Note the Log5 doesn’t know anything other than hit averages.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.333, 0.759 — Jean Segura batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.313, 0.750 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.318, 0.737 — Corey Dickerson batting against Nick Martinez.
0.313, 0.732 — David Peralta batting against Ivan Nova.
0.280, 0.730 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.302, 0.724 — Robinson Cano batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.284, 0.723 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jose Quintana.
0.310, 0.721 — Chris Owings batting against Ivan Nova.
0.310, 0.720 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.328, 0.720 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.294, 0.716 — Starlin Castro batting against Chris Tillman.
0.300, 0.716 — Brandon Drury batting against Ivan Nova.

Trout came down lower on this list, .729. Three other injured players would have made the list; A.J. Pollock, Yunel Escobar, and Justin Turner. With the park added in (the three-year hit average at Coors is a whopping .270), Segura comes out on top again. One last note on Segura, his numbers against a starting pitcher is likely a floor, as he kills relief pitchers this year.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. In fact, if you look at the spread sheet linked above, the NN is hitting that target well. So far, the average daily probability is .738, while the actual fraction of best picks getting a hit is .75. So the NN predicted 41.34 games with a hit, and delivered 42 out of 56.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 29
Ivan Nova 27
Eric Thames 24
Johnny Cueto 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Raul Mondesi 23
Tyler Anderson 21
Scott Feldman 21
Kyle Higashioka 20
Conor Gillaspie 19
Taylor Motter 19
Chris Carter 18
Cameron Rupp 18
Kyle Schwarber 17
Luke Maile 16
Kyle Hendricks 16
Danny Espinosa 16
Zack Greinke 16
Brian McCann 16
Greg Bird 15
Mike Foltynewicz 15
Carlos Gonzalez 15
Adam Jones 14
Brandon McCarthy 14
Devin Mesoraco 14
Ben Revere 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Chris Gimenez 14
Robert Gsellman 14
Julio Teheran 14
Emilio Bonifacio 13
Erick Aybar 13
Raimel Tapia 13
Bartolo Colon 13
Michael Wacha 13
Kole Calhoun 13
Christopher Herrmann 13
Matt Garza 12
Chad Kuhl 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Leonys Martin 12
Jed Lowrie 12
Danny Ortiz 11
Craig Gentry 11
Matt Moore 11
Timothy Adleman 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Avisail Garcia 11
Starling Marte 11
Zack Wheeler 11
Aaron Hill 11
Lance Lynn 11
Yandy Diaz 10
Alex Wood 10
Chad Pinder 10
Erik Gonzalez 10
Kennys Vargas 10
Thomas Koehler 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Ryan Braun 10
Nick Castellanos 10
Stuart Turner 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Lonnie Chisenhall 10
Tyler Collins 10
Trevor Williams 10
Jered Weaver 10

Good luck!



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Tuesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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“Selling Is Helping,” What A Load Of Crap!

Mike Kunkle has posed an interesting question about the trend to describe “Selling Is Helping,” on LinkedIn.  You really need to read the discussion.

I get hugely bored with much of the discussion about selling is helping.  The concept is fine–with some revisions, but the main challenge in this concept is in execution.

So I get everything off my chest, this movement is parallel to the movement to not call sales people “sales people.”  There are dozens to hundreds of titles people use to distance their sales people from the “stigma” of being in sales.

Pile onto this the companies proudly declaring, “We don’t have sale people…..”  Yet when you go research their companies, they have lots of people with purely sales backgrounds and lots of people who are accountable for working with customers to generate revenue.

Yes, sales and selling leaves bad tastes in the mouths of customers.  When I speak to customer groups, I generally start with the joke

“What do you call 600 sales people at the bottom of the ocean?   …..  A good start?”

It always generates laughter and applause.

But it’s us, sellers and sales people who have created this!  We have no one to blame but ourselves.

Selling has always been about “helping!”

But how we sell and our behaviors are anything but helpful!  Chanting mantras, changing what we call ourselves won’t change a thing until we change our behaviors!

Until we genuinely put the customer at the center of everything we do, rather than putting ourselves, our goals/commissions, our companies at the center of what we do, we will never eliminate the “stigma” regardless what we call ourselves or how we describe what we do.

Let’s be clear, we are not in a charitable business–even of the company we work for is a not for profit.  We are in the business of generating revenue helping our companies grow.

But the only way we do this is through our customers.  If we our customers aren’t achieving their goals leveraging out solutions, then we are creating costs/problems for them.

We need to be viciously focused on how we apply our “helpfulness.”  We can’t help everyone.  We have to know:  1.  What are the problems we are the best in the world at solving?  2.  Who has those problems?  3  Who has those problems now?  These are the only people who want and will appreciate our help.  For companies outside this “sweet spot,” we are wasting their time and our time—we are not being helpful.

Yet too many organizations and sales people don’t pay attention to this.  They call anyone they can.  They don’t do the research to say, “This company has problems we solve, this person/persona owns those problems.”

Noticed I focused on the problems we solve and the customers that have them (Yes, you can reframe this to opportunities).  It’s these the customer cares about — it’s finding the solution to their problem or addressing an opportunity.

Yet even when we call the right people, we talk to them about the wrong things–we don’t talk to them about their problems and what they want to achieve.  We pitch them our products.  Customer don’t care about our products.  They aren’t going to take the time to figure out, “Is this product the best solution to my problem?”  It’s our job to do that for them.

In complex B2B, customers struggle with buying, we provide great value in helping customer learn how to buy and facilitating their buying processes.

There are all sorts of other things we do to “help” customers.

The point is, at it’s core, sales has always been about helping.  It is through these actions that we achieve our goals.

But we haven’t been very helpful—our customers tell us this and the data is horrifying.  They don’t want to see sales people, they don’t see sales people as helpful, we don’t understand their businesses, we don’t understand their problems, we don’t listen to them.  We care about our products, our commissions/goals.

Changing what we label ourselves is meaningless if we don’t change our behaviors, what we do, why we do it, and how we do it.

Customer see through this so our mantras and title changes become meaningless or worse.

I’m sick of the sales apologists.  We should be proud of the professional execution of our jobs.  We should be true to what selling is–finding customers with the problems we solve and helping them solve them.  We should not tolerate mediocrity or those who aren’t committed to what professional selling is about.

And we must stop playing word games.  It’s an insult to great sales professionals and to the intelligence of our customers.

 

 



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Monday, May 29, 2017

Going for the Team HR Cycle

The Toronto Blue Jays batters are in the middle of pounding the Reds pitching staff as Toronto leads 13-2 at the end of six innings. The Blue Jays hit three home runs so far, a two-run shot by Russell Martin, a three-run shot by Justin Smoak, and a grand slam by Troy Tulowitzki. They just need the solo shot for one of each kind.

Reds pitchers have walked six and struck out one batter through six innings.



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Trout Torn

Mike Trout tore a thumb ligament. Here’s Mike DiGiovanna reporting the news:

That’s very bad news for the Angels. Trout is in the midst of an historical season as Devon YoungPointed out to me today:

Tonight’s the Angels 54th game, & entering the game, Trout’s rWAR is 3.5 & his fWAR is 3.6. Which is right where he needs to be to keep on pace for an 11 WAR season, since 11/3 = 3.67.

The Last 11 Times a Non-Pitcher Reached 11 rWAR

2002 – Barry Bonds (11.8)
2001 – Barry Bonds (11.9)
1991 – Cal Ripken (11.5)
1967 – Carl Yastrzemski (12.4)
1965 – Willie Mays (11.2)
1964 – Willie Mays (11.0)
1957 – Mickey Mantle (11.3)
1956 – Mickey Mantle (11.2)
1948 – Stan Musial (11.1)
1927 – Babe Ruth (12.4)
Lou Gehrig (11.8)

Another thing I noticed is that Trout’s about to become the Angels all-time leader in both rWAR & fWAR for the team’s history. —

rWAR

52.2 – Chuck Finley (P)
52.0 – Mike Trout
45.9 – Jim Fregosi
40.5 – Tim Salmon
40.2 – Nolan Ryan (P)
37.8 – Brian Downing
35.9 – Jered Weaver (P)
34.9 – Bobby Grich
34.4 – Frank Tanana (P)
32.6 – Darin Erstad

fWAR

51.3 – Mike Trout
46.0 – Chuck Finley (P)
45.2 – Nolan Ryan (P)
42.6 – Jim Fregosi
36.5 – Brian Downing
35.6 – Bobby Grich
35.4 – Tim Salmon
34.5 – Mike Witt (P; the only one not in the rWAR top 10, pushing Erstad off)
31.4 – Jered Weaver (P)
30.8 – Frank Tanana (P)

And even though we all know Trout’s an historic player, it’s still amazing to see how quickly he’s risen up the list. As of right now he’s played in 364 LESS games & had 1,112 LESS PA then any of the other batters in the team’s top 10.

It very tough to go through a career with no injuries. Players like Cal Ripken and Henry Aaron never seemed to get hurt, at least enough to keep them out of the lineup for any length of time. They really are the exceptions.



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Blasting the Bullpen

Ervin Santana of the Twins held the Astros to two runs, one earned, through seven innings Monday afternoon. The Astros won the game 16-8. They scored eleven runs in the eighth inning and three in the ninth, as four Twins relievers stuck up Target field as they struggled to find six outs. In two innings they did not strike out a batter while walking three and allowing two home runs. Of the 22 batter they faced, 13 recorded hits.

The Twins bullpen pitched well this year, but the Astros had their number today.



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Harper Goes Balistic

Hunter Strickland hits Bryce Harper in the top of the eighth inning, and Harper goes after the Giants pitcher. Harper glared, started walking toward the mound, threw his helmet into the ground, and then started punching Strickland. Some pulled Harper away, but the Giants had to wrestle Strickland off the field and into the dugout.

Watching the replay, Strickland landed the first punch, but Harper got in two to the face. It also looks like Harper meant to throw the helmet at Strickland, and it slipped out of his hand. Harper, of course, hit two home runs off Strickland in the post season.



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Price Not Quite Right

David Price pitches five innings in his return to the majors. The Boston starter allowed the White Sox just two hits, but one of them was a three-run homer by Melky Cabrera. That was still good enough for Price to leave with a 4-3 lead. The bottom of the seventh inning, however, produced a triple, a double, and a Melky Cabrera RBI single gave the White Sox a 5-4 lead, and unlike the Red Sox pen, the White Sox held the lead. Chicago relievers struck out eight in five innings of work.



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Orioles Win

The Orioles break their seven game losing streak with a 3-2 win against the Yankees. The offense didn’t exactly come to life, they have now score three runs or fewer in five of their last eight games. They did turn three double plays, effectively reducing the Yankees base runners from nine to six. The Orioles are near the top of the AL in double plays turned, and that strength helped them today.



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Are the Dodgers Slow

Cody Bellinger homered in Monday’s game between the Dodgers and the Cardinals, a solo shot. That gives him 25 runs scored and 29 RBI on the season in 31 games. Given his power, and his ability to hit for power with men on base, that RBI total looks low to me. Coming into today’s game, he came up with 96 runners on and drove in 18 of those runners, 18.75%. That’s good, but not great. He is hitting .304/.365/.661 with men on, and that slugging percentage should be driving runners a log way around the bases. With a man on first base only, Bellinger hit three doubles and two home runs, for five RBI. That means his doubles only drove in one run. He did hit a triple and a homer with the bases loaded, and has eight RBI in that situation.

He has two singles with a man on second with no RBI. With men on first and second, he hit two home runs, and his three singles appeared to drive in two runs. Either the Dodgers are not running well, or Bellinger is hitting the ball so hard it gets to the outfielders too quickly for the runners to score. It looks like Yasmani Grandal and Adrian Gonzalez bat in front of Bellinger. Maybe it’s time the the Dodgers to move him up in the order where some speed could add to his RBI totals.

The Dodgers lead the Cardinals 3-1 after five innings.



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Games of the Day

The Yankees open an important AL East series at Baltimore. The Orioles losing streak stands at seven games as they sit in third place, 4 1/2 games behind New York. Jordan Montgomery takes on Dylan Bundy. Montgomery posts interesting stats. His opposition slash line comes in at .228/.304/.363, which I would imagine would lead to a pretty good ERA. His 4.30 ERA is okay. His .205 BA with runners in scoring position would lead in the same direction. Montgomery allowed four of his five home runs with men on base, however, so 12 of the 24 runs he allowed came on the five homers. Bundy is somewhat similar to Montgomery with a .235/.292/.389 slash line against, but five of the seven home runs against him were solo shots.

David Price winds up missing 1/3 of the season as he makes his 2017 debut for the Red Sox. He’ll face David Holmberg of the White Sox in a battle of excellently named pitchers! Price had an interesting stint at Pawtucket for his rehabilitation. He pitched 5 2/3 innings in two starts, struck out eight, but allowed 12 hits and nine runs. The positive take away is the eight strikeouts. Holmberg makes his first start of the season after dominating in his 10 1/3 bullpen innings. He allowed just three hits and one run.

First place teams clash in Minnesota as the Astros send Brad Peacock against the Twins and Ervin Santana. Peacock makes his second start of the season, having worked 12 games in relief. He struck out eight in 4 1/3 innings in his first start, and struck out 30 in 20 2/3 innings for the season. Santana leads the AL in ERA with a 1.80 mark, 0.01 runs better than Houston ace Dallas Keuchel. So a good offensive day by the Astros would have the added benefit of moving Keuchel into first place. It looks to me as if the Twins defense has a lot to do with Santana’s success. His three-true outcomes are good but not great, yet he allowed just a .134/.228/.238 slash line. He owns a highly improbable .136 BABIP, and his xFIP stands at 4.72. His line drive percentage is very low at 14.4%, which no doubt helps the defense. Batters appear to be lofting the ball more against him, and those fly balls are falling into gloves. FanGraphs does rate the Twins as the best defense in the league.

Finally, the Rays send Erasmo Ramirez against the Rangers and Martin Perez. Both teams are well within striking distance of the AL Wild Card, and the Rays still have a shot at the AL East title. Ramirez lowered his walk rate this season, about one every six innings. That helped bring his ERA under 3.00. Perez gives up plenty of hits and walks, but all his home runs came with the bases empty. He bends but doesn’t break, as opponents are hitting just .229 against him with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!



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Weekly Look at Offense

The gap between the 2016 and 2017 seasons narrowed, as week eight came in as the lowest scoring week of the season so far, 8.25 runs per game. Comparing the two years after eight weeks, 2017 produced 9.04 runs per game, 2016 produced 8.67 runs per game. The game at the MLB level keeps moving more toward a batter-pitcher battle, as home runs, walks, and strikeouts are all up, while other hits are down. (All comparisons are after eight weeks.) Home runs are up 0.26 per game. Singles, doubles, and triples are down 0.32 per game. So batters appear to be doing a good job of replacing one group of hits with another. Since the home run is a more valuable hit, and because batters walk more, on whole the move is positive for runs.

Of course, this, taken to an extreme, will lead to a more boring game. We want to see the skill of fielders. We want to see games turn on bad hops or great base running. The question is, how to force more contact? Right now, strikeouts are profitable for both batters and pitchers. How do we make contact profitable for both?



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.319 — Corey Dickerson batting against Martin Perez
0.317 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Moore
0.311 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Matt Moore
0.311 — Matt Kemp batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.309 — Zack Cozart batting against Marcus Stroman
0.309 — Travis Shaw batting against Robert Gsellman
0.302 — Manuel Pina batting against Robert Gsellman
0.300 — Chris Owings batting against Trevor Williams
0.300 — Hernan Perez batting against Robert Gsellman
0.298 — Eric Sogard batting against Robert Gsellman

Dickerson is having an MVP like season at the plate, and Perez allows a high BA, but also walks a good number of batters. Dickerson is the only Rays player making the list, as Tampa Bay in general uses players that favor walks over hits. In the AL, the team has a below average BA, but an above average OBP. That’s a poor formula for extending hit streaks.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.317, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Moore.
0.288, 0.736 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.280, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.319, 0.733 — Corey Dickerson batting against Martin Perez.
0.311, 0.728 — Matt Kemp batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.297, 0.723 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.296, 0.718 — David Peralta batting against Trevor Williams.
0.300, 0.716 — Chris Owings batting against Trevor Williams.
0.269, 0.716 — Xander Bogaerts batting against David Holmberg.
0.311, 0.714 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Matt Moore.

Note that the Brewers against Gsellman fall off the list. Gsellman’s 2017 hit average is high, but that’s the fourth ranked of the six parameters used by the NN. The Log5 method ranks the five parameters it uses fairly evenly. Daniel Murphy is the consensus pick, but he has missed a few games due to a stomach bug. Dickerson would be the consensus second choice. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 29
Ivan Nova 27
Johnny Cueto 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Raul Mondesi 23
Scott Feldman 21
Christian Arroyo 21
Tyler Anderson 21
Eric Thames 20
Kyle Higashioka 20
Taylor Motter 19
Conor Gillaspie 19
Buster Posey 17
Danny Espinosa 16
Zack Greinke 16
Chris Carter 15
Mike Zunino 15
Mike Foltynewicz 15
Luke Maile 15
Greg Bird 15
Ben Revere 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Kyle Hendricks 14
Julio Teheran 14
Cameron Rupp 14
J.D. Martinez 14
Dansby Swanson 14
Adam Jones 14
Brandon McCarthy 14
Brock Stassi 13
Erick Aybar 13
Mookie Betts 13
Michael Wacha 13
Emilio Bonifacio 13
Raimel Tapia 13
Bartolo Colon 13
Christopher Herrmann 12
Chad Kuhl 12
Rajai Davis 12
Kyle Schwarber 12
Logan Forsythe 12
Leonys Martin 12
Timothy Adleman 11
Carlos Gonzalez 11
Lance Lynn 11
Brian McCann 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Zack Wheeler 11
Robert Gsellman 11
Craig Gentry 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Starling Marte 11
Yan Gomes 11
Thomas Koehler 10
Erik Gonzalez 10
Ryan Braun 10
Yandy Diaz 10
Alex Wood 10
Aaron Hill 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Stuart Turner 10
Matthew Adams 10
Yasmany Tomas 10
Chris Gimenez 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Kennys Vargas 10
Gregor Blanco 10
Jered Weaver 10
Tyler Collins 10
Lonnie Chisenhall 10
Max Kepler-Rozycki 10
Matt Garza 10
Devin Mesoraco 10

Good luck!



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Memorial Day Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date. As summer gets underway, I want to send my best wishes to all the servicemen and veterans as they remember their fallen brothers and sisters.

There is a new addition to the DBDD today. The Cy Young Tracker now contains a sortable column called Season Score. This was a request from Tom Tango:

Here is the explanation of the statistic.



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Should You Mandate One On One’s?

Jon Birdsong, CEO of WideAngle raised a fascinating question in a post:  Should You Mandate One On One Meetings?

My immediate reaction is if the manager and sales person are conducting these meetings correctly, the value of the meetings becomes so great that mandating them is a moot point.  Each looks forward to the meeting because each is learning and growing.  The meetings are helpful to both in growing and achieving their goals.

As a result, the meetings become a valuable use of each person’s time.  They can’t imagine not having them.

Unfortunately, too often this isn’t the case.  Both the sales person and the manager go through the motions.  Neither is learning, little is being accomplished other than a data dump, probably of information that was already known.  These meetings become a waste of time.

Which brings us back to the point, should they be mandated?

In the first case, they will always happen, because of the value created.  In the latter case, the manager and sales person breathe sighs of relief and use their time differently—though not necessarily better.

But the issue really is, these meetings are critical.  They are really needed!  Sales people need coaching, they need to learn and grow.  Managers need to be engaged with their people, not just understanding what they are doing, but doing everything they can to improve performance and develop the people.  One On One’s are a critical means of doing this.  They are critical in making sure the manager and sales person stay connected and engaged with each other.

If managers aren’t conducting them well, if sales people aren’t getting and giving value in the meetings, it is unacceptable to abandon them!  We have to fix them, we have to refocus them to get the value they should produce.

It is unacceptable to let the manager and sales person off the hook.  Making them optional gives them the excuse not to do the things we know are critical to success, engagement, and performance improvement.

While both the manager and sales person are accountable for leveraging the time spent in one on one’s in a way that creates value for each, the key responsibility for making this happen is with the manager.

Here’s where the manager’s manager comes into place.  If a manager isn’t leveraging one on one’s effectively, that manager is not leveraging a key tool to drive performance.  The manager’s manager has to coach the manager, getting them to both recognize the power of effective one on one’s, their responsibility to create an environment to conduct these high impact one on one’s, and helping them improve their ability to conduct those one on one’s.

One on one’s are mandatory.

But if we are doing our jobs as managers, the fact they are mandatory should be irrelevant.  We need to make that time managers and sales people spend in one on one’s so valuable, neither can imagine not having them.

Are you conducting one on one’s that create real meaning for both the manager and the sales person?

 

Afterword:  For those of you who are not familiar with Wideangle, it’ s very powerful tool for managers and sales people to leverage the power of one on one’s  It’s something every manager should look at.

 

 



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Sunday, May 28, 2017

Extreme Players

The Rangers beat the Blue Jays Sunday afternoon 3-1, Joey Gallo driving in the go-ahead run with his 15th home runs of the season in the fourth inning. Gallo was one for three on the day with a walk and a strikeout, meaning that three of his four plate appearances were purely a battle between hitter and pitcher. In fact, Gallo now has 109 three-true outcomes in his 187 PA, 58.3 percent. That ranks second among players with at least 100 PA.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Lucroy hit two singles in four trips, no walks nor strikeouts. In 149 PA, he only has 22 three true outcomes, 14.8%. That’s the second lowest percentage among players with at least 100 PA. So Texas offers a little of everything; a player who simply battles the pitcher, and one who test the fielders.



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