The 2018 series on team offense begins with the Houston Astros. The Astros finished first in the majors in 2017 with 5.53 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That A.J. Hinch order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 5.50
Probable lineup: 5.42
Worst lineup: 5.22
Regressed lineup: 4.87
The default lineup in no way resembles the best lineup, with the exception of Tyler White batting eighth. Despite the differences, the default lineup remains excellent. If Hinch worries about this batting order, that worry likely only lasts a few seconds. Optimally arranged or not, this order should score lots of runs.
The default lineup makes a statement that should scare other teams to their core. It is the rare top offense that can bat their middle infielders three and four. In 2016, the Astros set the record for plate appearances (PA) for middle infielders with 1041. In 2017, they posted the second highest total at 924. Both those beat the 1989 Tigers (Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker) at 918 PA, the 2010 Marlins (Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla) at 840 PA, and the 2003 Red Sox (Nomar Garciaparra and Todd Walker) at 749 PA. Neither the Tigers nor the Marlins were great teams. The Red Sox total mostly comes from Garciaparra. At this point, we are looking at the greatest middle infield combination in the history of baseball, on both sides of the ball.
The Astros lineup might have some upside as well. Tyler White is in his prime, and hit very well in the minor leagues. His .312/.434 mini-slash line should be a floor, not a ceiling. If you like offense, tune into Astros games this season.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
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