Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.351 — Albert Almora batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.346 — Jean Segura batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.335 — Manny Machado batting against Martin Perez.
0.328 — Adam Jones batting against Martin Perez.
0.326 — Javier Baez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.320 — Dee Gordon batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.309 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Ivan Nova.
0.308 — Buster Posey batting against Brett Anderson.
0.308 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Ivan Nova.
0.304 — Christian Yelich batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.301 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.301 — Brandon Crawford batting against Brett Anderson.
0.300 — Jason Heyward batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.297 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.295 — Corey Dickerson batting against Brent Suter.
0.295 — Alen Hanson batting against Brett Anderson.
0.294 — Willson Contreras batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.294 — Kris Bryant batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.293 — J.D. Martinez batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.293 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Martin Perez.
0.292 — Eddie Rosario batting against Chris Archer.
0.292 — Hernan Perez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.292 — Mark Trumbo batting against Martin Perez.
0.291 — Jonathan Villar batting against Ivan Nova.
0.291 — Mookie Betts batting against Sam Gaviglio.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.346, 0.765 — Jean Segura batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.351, 0.762 — Albert Almora batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.301, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.320, 0.736 — Dee Gordon batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.335, 0.731 — Manny Machado batting against Martin Perez.
0.326, 0.728 — Javier Baez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.293, 0.728 — J.D. Martinez batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.328, 0.726 — Adam Jones batting against Martin Perez.
0.291, 0.720 — Mookie Betts batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.308, 0.718 — Buster Posey batting against Brett Anderson.
0.292, 0.717 — Eddie Rosario batting against Chris Archer.
0.284, 0.717 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.295, 0.716 — Corey Dickerson batting against Brent Suter.
0.285, 0.715 — Michael Brantley batting against CC Sabathia.
0.283, 0.714 — Gerardo Parra batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.308, 0.714 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Ivan Nova.
0.276, 0.711 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.271, 0.710 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.309, 0.709 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Ivan Nova.
0.276, 0.707 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.302, 0.707 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.275, 0.707 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.276, 0.706 — Avisail Garcia batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.277, 0.706 — Nolan Arenado batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.304, 0.704 — Christian Yelich batting against Ivan Nova.
0.284, 0.704 — Jose Martinez batting against Luis Castillo.
0.284, 0.703 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Alex Wood.

Looks like a day when it’s Segura and Almora double down.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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